FSU Football: Why 2017 May Be Most Important Year of Fisher Era

Before we get started, this could have been written about 2016 as well. Prior to last season, Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher was expected to lead FSU to a potential College Football Playoff berth and another ACC championship.

Obviously that did not happen. Going 10-3 with an Orange Bowl victory is nothing to scoff at, but the expectations set before the season meant FSU had little room for error.

It must be noted however that no one could predict Derwin James would be out most of the season, along with injuries to starters along the offensive line and at wide receiver. Every team experiences some amount of injuries. Florida State’s just happened to be perhaps its second most important player.

Put another way: if someone had told you before the season that Derwin James would miss the Louisville game, and that the Louisville quarterback would eventually win the Heisman, is that game even predicted as a victory?

But close losses to Clemson and North Carolina mean patience has worn a little thin. At the end of the day, 2016 could be just a fluke year. Barring major injuries to a key player, 2017 will be the true barometer for the future of the program.

Looking at the components of the team makes it clear that Fisher doesn’t have any excuses for the offense to be anything less than good. The loss of Dalvin Cook to the NFL Draft is obviously the biggest development in this area. But Florida State has a talented backfield composed of multiple blue-chip prospects, along with 2-year contributor Jacques Patrick.

The Seminoles return their starting quarterback, two of their top three wide receivers, and multiple starting linemen. That does not mean the FSU offense should be better or just as good as the 2016 iteration, but it should still be in the same ballpark. Offensive S&P ratings had the Seminoles with the third best overall offense last year.

Defense is where the questions will need to be answered. Put succinctly: if the defense has a similar performance to 2016, coordinator Charles Kelly is not the answer. At one point, the defense had bottomed out to 79th in the S&P ratings and was getting thrashed by every legitimate offense it faced.

If one looks at the situation in the best light possible, they could conclude that a mixture of little depth and injuries to key players facilitated the struggles. That is partly true. But it is also true that at least one of those excuses is now gone in the upcoming 2017 season.

The Florida State defense returns almost every key player besides defensive end DeMarcus Walker and cornerback Marquez White. At both positions, it has talented replacements who now have game experience. In fact, the depth chart has some of the most experience it has had since 2014.

The Seminoles also get back one of the best players in the nation in the ball-hawking James. Youth is also no longer an excuse. Depth is no longer an excuse. If the Seminoles are not a top 25 defense throughout the entire season, Kelly should be looking for work elsewhere.

If the defense doesn’t do that, will Fisher move on from Kelly? A common thread from coaches who work under him suggest that loyalty is a huge factor for Fisher. If he thinks you’re a good coach, he will not fire you — no matter what the on field results are. While that has worked pretty well for years (because Fisher has a good eye for talent), it becomes a serious question going in to 2017. If Kelly turns out not be the answer, will Fisher do anything about it?

There’s another more looming barometer that is relevant for Fisher.

It has now been two years since FSU won the ACC championship. 2015 was not surprising considering how young the team was. 2016 does not look too bad in retrospect considering Clemson won the national championship. But 2017 has no clear front-runner in the ACC.

Clemson loses its legendary quarterback and almost half its starters (as does North Carolina). Louisville seems to be the one other serious contender, yet its only claim is the return of Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. Besides him, the Cardinals return the same amount of starters as Clemson and UNC. Florida State is the one team that has the right mix of talent, experience, and expectations to be the conference champions.

Why is the ACC title so important? Simply put, Florida State cannot contend for national championships unless it wins the conference. That is where the ultimate evaluation of the program will take place. Part of the hallmark of the Bobby Bowden era was the complete domination of everyone in the ACC. When it came to football, Florida State was the annual front-runner to win the ACC without question.

That is probably not attainable in the modern ACC, simply due to the recruiting prowess of teams like Clemson and the influx of coaching talent at schools like Virginia Tech and Louisville. But the Seminoles should still be winning the conference at least once every three years. Being unable to do so would indicate that they are not living up to expectations and are wasting golden opportunities.

The 2017 slate sets up very well for Florida State to capture the ACC. The only tough opponent that it has to travel to is Clemson; the Seminoles get Louisville and Miami at home.

Obviously things can change in between now and the end of the season. Injuries could occur and suspensions might happen. It would be foolish to hold Florida State to a standard set in June with no regards to anything that happens since then.

The point is that 2017 projects to be one of the most (if not the most) telling seasons for Jimbo Fisher and what level the program is at. Another 2016 will probably not cut it for a team that is supposed to be competing for a national championship. On some level, Fisher probably knows that.