A Florida State football game where fans can relax going into the fourth quarter seems to be a rarity these days.
The recent 35-17 win over Syracuse (which wasn’t even as close as the final score) was arguably the first such victory of the entire season. The defense did a good job, the offense did enough to grab a big lead in due time, and overall the Seminoles can walk away feeling good about the product on the field.
Of course, the story lines of the season now have even more wrinkles. The biggest on everyone’s mind is the ongoing quarterback position battle. James Blackman and Alex Hornibrook have been trading off for the first eight games of the season, though Blackman leads with six starts to Hornibrook’s two.
Statistically, both players appear to be average to above average options at the position. That makes the competition that much more intriguing — how can either attempt to separate themselves?
Right now, the momentum is in Hornibrook’s favor almost solely due to his record as starter: 2-0. Hornibrook was also forced to finish the Sept. 21 contest against Louisville in which he rallied the Seminoles to a 35-24 victory.
Meanwhile, James Blackman is a disappointing 2-4 as starting quarterback. That is hardly the whole story — Hornibrook has graded out worse in some wins than Blackman has in a couple of his losses. Coaching staffs take more into account than just raw stats and a non-existent “quarterback wins” metric.
Right now, it looks like Hornibrook will get the start against Miami this week. He seems a little bit more comfortable in coordinator Kendal Briles’ system than Blackman at this point. But is the job completely in his control?
A lot of fans point to the win-loss record as evidence he deserves the future starts. After looking into it however, it appears that there’s no clear leader for the quarterback competition. Here’s some context on that win-loss record.
Combined Opponent Records (Hornibrook): 7-6 (.538)
Combined Opponent Records (Blackman): 26-8 (.765)
Excluded is the result of the FSU game from each combined record.
So yes, Hornibrook has admittedly faced easier competition (though the gap is not as big as the overall records might indicate). Yet he does have a real advantage over Blackman when it comes to mental makeup. We have no inside sources confirming this, but it seems that Blackman lets bad plays get into his head.
Instead of moving on and focusing on the next play, Blackman tries too hard the next couple of series and begins to stunt the offense when he can’t convert. Hornibrook has no such mental block. He goes out and runs the offense to the best of his abilities.
Yet Hornibrook’s weaknesses are much more obvious. For one, his deep ball does not threaten any defense with a pulse. He puts way too much air under any pass going more than 20 yards, and it often requires his receivers to bail him out.
By one’s own paper napkin count, Hornibrook has left around four touchdowns on the field because he couldn’t hit a receiver in stride. That’s a frustrating habit which leads to all sorts of “what if?” questions if the team loses by singular scores.
Secondly, he doesn’t seem to handle pressure well. Besides one beyond obvious pass to Tamorrion Terry against Louisville, Hornibrook hasn’t responded to pressure any better than Blackman.
This will become a problem against rivals Miami and Florida — both of whom are expected to bring the house on a lot of plays. In all actuality, they probably won’t even have to do that to get solid push up front.
Both of these points are to say: Don’t expect Hornibrook to have a tight hold on this position battle. Whoever gets the starting nod from here on out is simply who had the better week in practice, or whoever the coaches think can run the offense better in that game in particular.
Staunchly advocating for either quarterback over the other is a fool’s errand. They each have different strengths and weaknesses, and neither has played well enough to deserve that level of commitment. For now, fans should hope the staff sticks with whoever they think will get them a victory on Saturday.
Clint Eiland is the lead writer for The Daily Nole. Follow Clint on Twitter @ClintEiland. Like The Daily Nole on Facebook. To pitch an idea, author a post or to learn more about The Daily Nole, email Mike Ferguson at Mike@TheDailyNole.com.
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