If the Florida State Seminoles lose to the Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon, head coach Jimbo Fisher’s program is in worse shape than anyone would’ve guessed.
That seems like a pretty dramatic statement for a team that’s 4-6 on the season, especially considering that it is facing a fellow 4-6 team whose head coach was fired mid-season. But the numbers make it clear that Florida State is by far the better team heading into Saturday.
Using S&P ratings, we can see that Florida State is superior across the board. When compared to its rival, FSU comes out on top in offensive ranking (95 vs. 103), defensive ranking (38 vs. 63), and overall ranking (68 vs. 83). The only spot where the Gators get the edge is in special teams ranking (22 vs. 16), which also has the smallest difference of any factor. Florida State has done this against a tougher schedule, with the fourth most difficult in the nation compared to Florida’s 17th most difficult.
Those numbers don’t dictate a guaranteed victory of course. Beyond the numbers however, it’s obvious that the Seminoles enter the game in a much better spot.
Florida will likely be missing up to 30 players due to a mix of suspensions and injuries. That still includes star wide receiver Antonio Callaway and former starting running back Jordan Scarlett. However, even some of the new pieces might not be on the field come game time. Receiver Kadarius Toney, running back Mark Thompson, defensive end Jachai Polite, safety Jeawon Taylor and defensive tackle Elijah Conliffe all remain questionable for Saturday.
The Gators are basically one or two more injuries away from completely collapsing as a team. Florida State has had its own fair share of injuries with starting quarterback Deondre Francois being the most notable. But the Seminoles have about half the attrition that Florida does, with only 15 players likely to be missing.
So not only has Florida State graded out higher than Florida, but it comes in with a much more complete team. That includes the coaching staff and the roster.
What excuse is there for Florida State to lose on Saturday?
Some will point out the quarterback situation and say that James Blackman is in a comparatively tougher spot than Feleipe Franks. But at no point this season has Franks looked like the more complete signal caller. Again, every metric from adjusted years per attempt, to passer efficiency rating, to even raw numbers shows that Blackman is superior. He will also be facing a less challenging defense.
The truth is that Fisher desperately needs a win on Saturday for a couple reasons. One is obviously the bowl streak. But the other main point to be made is that if FSU loses to both Miami and Florida in the same season, the Seminoles are officially knocked off the top of the state hierarchy.
The current Florida State recruiting class is already being affected by their lackluster play. What’s going to happen if a Florida team with an interim head coach beats FSU?
If the Chip Kelly rumors are to be true — although the momentum appears to be in UCLA’s favor — then it will get even worse. Because not only will the Gators have beat the Seminoles in a down year, but then Florida would be getting an elite head coach for the near future. Meanwhile Fisher is apparently interested enough in other jobs to have it swirling around the news cycle.
Motivation should not be an issue. If Florida State cannot get properly motivated to extend a decades long bowl streak and major win streak against its biggest rival, then it explains why Fisher might be looking around at other schools.
That’s not to say Saturday’s game should never be close. The teams are both in the lower tier of college football, and Florida State has not been dominant against any FBS opponent. Most are indeed expecting a victory within two scores.
The fact remains that once one digs deeper into both squads, Florida State comes out as the favorite. If it was a fully healthy Gator team or one with a full-time head coach, a loss would be more understandable. That’s obviously not the case.
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