Losing to Alabama is not a death sentence. Fans knew that coming in to Saturday night’s contest, and it still holds true even after the 24-7 loss.
But that’s not why Florida State is feeling bad about Saturday night.
The main reason is the season-ending knee injury that quarterback Deondre Francois sustained near the end of the contest. With the game in fear of getting out of hand, Francois trotted out in a last-ditch attempt at putting points on the board. What happened next was the worst-case scenario of FSU fans across the country.
Francois rolled out to the right looking for a receiver. Before he was able to get the pass away, Alabama safety Ronnie Harrison went for the sack and rolled up on Francois’ knee. The second it became apparent that Francois was in pain, fans began to get that sinking feeling in their chest.
On Sunday, the bad news was confirmed. Francois will miss the remainder of 2017 with a patella tendon injury.
With the reigning ACC Rookie of the year gone, the first thing that has to be established is this: the College Football Playoff is probably now out of the equation. That was already a tough goal with Francois completely healthy, and now it is almost certainly unattainable.
Is it possible that freshman James Blackman is ahead of schedule and that he’s good enough to squeak FSU into the playoffs? Certainly. But that is asking a ton from a freshman who has been on campus for just a few months.
What FSU needs to aim for now is the ACC championship. Most of its conference opponents aren’t all that threatening. There are three teams who have a decent chance at beating FSU: Miami, Louisville, and Clemson.
All three were noteworthy at the beginning of the season, and all three remain noteworthy. All the other teams are still unlikely to beat FSU regardless of Francois’ health.
If the Seminoles can get to Charlotte and notch a conference championship victory with only two losses, there is a slight chance that they could even get selected for the playoff. That would require a lot of lucky breaks around the country, but it’s still possible.
Even that is negotiable. But it only become negotiable under one circumstance: beating at least 2/3 of Miami, Florida, and Clemson. Maintaining in-state supremacy would be the best result for the immediate future of the program. Florida State could gear up for a massive 2018 if it turns out that it is still undoubtedly the best program in Florida. Plus, bragging rights are always fun.
If that can’t be assured, then a victory at Clemson would be the next best thing.
10-2 is probably the ceiling now. 9-3 is the most likely result, though only by a slight amount. Keep in mind that FSU still has elite talent and a high floor. The Seminoles can afford to start looking to the future seasons and start playing inexperienced athletes who need the reps.
If the defense plays the rest of the season like it did against Alabama, then fans should be pretty confident that Florida State can return to a major bowl game. Very few offenses on the schedule can strike at the FSU defense in a way that would force the FSU offense to carry the load. Heck, maybe none of them can.
What happens with the offense is an entirely different subject that we’ll elaborate on in a later piece. In general though, this team still has a group of hyper-talented running backs and wide receivers along with an offensive line that actually held its own against the best defense in the nation. There’s obviously going to be a step back, but the Seminoles are not helpless by any stretch of the imagination.
Saturday night obviously did not go the way Florida State fans wanted it to. Injuries like the one to Francois have the ability to take the wind out of a team’s sails and lead to disappointing losses.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher has one of the toughest tasks in recent memory. He has to motivate a team who might have just seen its primary goal get taken away after the very first game of the season. It won’t be easy. There will probably be another loss down the road.
But something says Fisher will be up to the task.
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