Jimbo Fisher Outperforms Coaches With Similarly Talented Teams

Every offseason sees various authors attempt to rank the FBS head coaches. Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher has been a mainstay on these lists — usually he finds himself in the top five, if not the top three.

The only options that are definitely better than him are Nick Saban of Alabama and Ohio State’s Urban Meyer. Beyond that, Fisher has an argument for the next spot.

Yet, there still remains a contingent of people who argue Fisher is a mediocre coach. Some of them are actually Florida State fans…

Some arguments try to cast former Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston as the sole reason for Fisher’s success. It is certainly true that having a generational quarterback typically helps teams reach new heights, but that obviously isn’t the implication of the argument. Fisher having four seasons of 10-plus wins and two Orange Bowl victories without Winston doesn’t seem to dissuade them.

The main point against him seems to be that Florida State has the talent to be playoff contenders every year. Yet, the Seminoles haven’t been back since 2014, and they lost three games in both 2015 and 2016. That wasn’t surprising for the 2015 season, but the 2016 year was definitely a shock.

On its surface, this argument does make more sense. The 2016 season was a disappointment when compared to preseason expectations. Other years like 2011 and even 2012 had losses that should never have occurred. No matter how good of a coach Fisher is, even his most ardent defenders would admit he has flaws.

But how true is that argument? How much talent does Florida State have compared to other teams? Is Fisher doing better or worse than said teams? After all, if he was doing worse, then it really would indicate problems on his end.

Here are the numbers from our short look into it. 10 teams were chosen by their Blue Chip Ratio prior to the 2016 season. For those interested, a recent piece from the same author has the updated numbers for 2017. We aren’t using those because we are looking at the results from 2013-16. Therefore, the numbers from the 2017 preseason are not applicable.

There are four different columns for this analysis. The first is the overall record of the teams during the years listed. The second is their record against teams ranked in the top 25 of F/+ ratings. Typically, we prefer just the S&P ratings, but the F/+ numbers were much easier to come by. It’s also a rating system that includes S&P, it just adds the FEI calculations.

The third is their bowl record and the parentheses is the same record in major bowls. The fourth and final is number of All-Americans (either consensus or unanimous).

What conclusions can we draw from this table?

The most obvious one is this: Jimbo Fisher utilizes talent better than everyone else except Nick Saban and Urban Meyer. That’s not necessarily surprising to those who have been keeping track. But what is surprising is just how much separation there is between those three coaches and everybody else.

In the categories of overall record, F/+ opponents, and major bowl record, Fisher represents the barrier between his tier and the next. Nobody else has above a .700 win percentage overall and above .421 win percentage against top opponents. Likewise, no other team has won more than a single major bowl game. Alabama, Ohio State, and Florida State are truly alone in their success.

It was a bit weird noticing that Ohio State only had five All-Americans. That’s not bad by any means, but it’s jarring to see the separation between the Buckeyes and Alabama. It’s obviously not an accurate metric to judge the gap between the two programs. Florida State’s nine total certainly reinforce the notion that Fisher’s program produces elite talent.

UCLA and Texas A&M are interesting case studies. They are both the smaller of two major teams in a big state loaded with high school talent. They both bring in considerable amount of talent that should theoretically help them contend. Instead, neither have been able to break through in the past few seasons. Fans have good reason to be skeptical of head coaches Jim Mora, Jr. and Kevin Sumlin at this point.

Of all teams listed, Auburn might be the least favorable destination. Two of its fellow conference members recruit better than the Tigers and have had more success over a 4-year period. Many (this author included) are high on their chances of playoff contention for 2017, but it’s going to be a really difficult path to do so.

Back to the main point: perhaps Florida State fans should be grateful for the position FSU is currently in. Does Fisher have a couple of inexcusable losses lately? Sure. Does he have to capitalize on favorable conditions in the next couple of years? Agreed.

This talk however, that he’s somehow a mediocre coach needs to be cast away as completely unsupported by the evidence. He might not be a Saban or Meyer. Yet, his accomplishments with the talent he brings in are better than multiple other programs and it’s not even close.

Talent does not automatically equal wins. A quality head coach is still needed for a team to reach its full potential. Florida State, without question, has one of those.