Better or Worse: How Each FSU Opponent Projects Next Season (Part II)

As part of our preview looking ahead to the 2017 season, we’re breaking down whether each Florida State opponent projects to be better or worse than they were last year. Part I can be found here. Today’s edition looks at the final contest in September through October, which includes games against Wake Forest, Duke, Louisville, and Boston College.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Worse

Key Returners: Duke Ejiofor (DE), Jessie Bates (S), Cam Serigne (TE)

Dave Clawson has done a commendable job at Wake Forest. When he was hired in 2014, it was at the bottom of the ACC and struggling to bring in enough talent to make a bowl game. After a stagnant 2015, his team finally showed improvement and went 7-6 last season. That might seem sarcastic but it’s honestly a compliment. It’s hard for programs like Wake Forest to find good coaching talent, so Clawson sticking around and helping the Deacons progress is a positive development.

The offense certainly had its troubles as it usually does. The quarterback question still had no clear answers; current junior Kendall Hinton was injured early in the season, and senior John Wolford seemed to regress from 2015. Despite this, the fact that Wake Forest returns almost its entire offense means improvement is coming. This group contains Wake’s two leading rushers and five of its leading receivers. The offense might not be a top unit — talent is still required to do so — but it’ll probably not be in the 100s.

Defense was the most interesting part of the Demon Deacons in 2016. They were actually great, considering the difficulty inherent in fielding a top 25 defense at a smaller program. They return future NFL draft pick Duke Ejiofor on the defensive line, who totaled 10.5 sacks last season, and safety Jessie Bates, who was second-team All-ACC as a freshman. However, they are replacing perhaps the most important reason for their defensive success: defensive coordinator Mike Elko.

He was hired away in the offseason by Notre Dame. Elko is an excellent coordinator and it will likely show when the Wake Forest defense takes a step back. Some future optimism for the Demon Deacons lies in new hire Jay Sawvel, who was the defensive coordinator at Minnesota. He actually helped the Golden Gophers to the 23rd overall defense in the S&P rankings. It will still take him some time to adjust to his new team however.

Duke Blue Devils: Better

Key Returners: Daniel Jones (QB), T.J. Rahming (WR), Ben Humphreys (LB), Joe Giles-Harris (LB)

It seems that Duke got worse every year since its lone ACC Championship appearance in 2013. Some of that is natural regression, though offensive struggles would appear to be a primary cause for the decline. For three straight years, the defense has performed better than the offense — something unexpected when David Cutcliffe is the head coach.

The good news is that the Blue Devils should be excited for their offense heading into 2017. The biggest reason? Quarterback Daniel Jones. After being thrust into action when starter Thomas Sirk went down with an injury, Jones impressed just about everyone who watched Duke. Even without much talent around him, Jones was able to throw for over 2,800 yards and 16 touchdowns, as well as rush for 486 yards and seven touchdowns. He played well enough that he’s likely going to get NFL looks from here on out. To help him progress, leading rusher Shaun Wilson is back and leading receiver T.J. Rahming (742 yards) is a dark horse Biletnikoff Award candidate.

Defense is a bit harder to evaluate. On one hand, they lost multiple veterans in the secondary, including three different safeties who combined for 161 tackles, three interceptions, and 20.5 tackles for loss. On the other hand, both of Duke’s starting linebackers return in Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris. Those two alone amassed 214 tackles and 21.5 tackles for loss. Add in returning defensive tackle Mike Ramsay and cornerback Bryon Fields, and the returning starters should be able to lead their respective units.

Louisville Cardinals: Neutral

Key Returners: Lamar Jackson (QB), Jaylen Smith (WR), James Hearns (LB), Jaire Alexander (CB)

There may have been no bigger collapse in college football in 2016 than the Louisville Cardinals in their last three games. They fell from the No. 3 spot to No. 21 when it was all over, with losses to Houston, Kentucky, and LSU in that order. So why should anyone expect them to return to their 2016 mark after losing a considerable amount of starters?

Because Lamar Jackson is here to stay. He might not have the Heisman worthy season he did in 2016, but Jackson has elite burst on the ground and continues to improve as a passer. If it was any other team that returned only five of their 10 offensive starters outside quarterback, they would probably regress. But Jackson is that good. There’s few reasons to bet on any serious downturn in offensive production. Despite losing their top three receivers and leading rusher, the Cardinals still have enough talent at the skill positions to take some of the focus away from the quarterback position.

Louisville didn’t necessarily lose a ton of defensive starters. What it lost was two defensive impact players in defensive end Devonte Fields, linebacker Keith Kelsey, and defensive tackle Deangelo Brown. The positive news is that almost everyone in the secondary returns and the linebacking corps will remain strong with James Hearns (eight sacks) and Stacy Thomas (7.5 tackles for loss).

There is a twist however: the Cardinals swapped defensive coordinators with Mississippi State. Peter Sirmon is the new face on the staff, and he only has one year of coordinating experience with the Bulldogs. How he utilizes the returning talent will be interesting to see.

Boston College Eagles: Neutral

Key Returners: Harold Landry (DE), Michael Walker (WR), Conor Strachan (LB)

It’s hard to understate how detrimental the Boston College offense has been to the team. If the Eagles even had an offense ranked in the 70s, they might’ve been able to win at least eight games. Instead, head coach Steve Addazio has spent the last two years in offensive hell trying to figure out a solution.

Will the 2017 iteration be any different? Maybe. It’s hard to discount the players who gained experience last year. Running back Jon Hilliman still hasn’t reached his full potential, and Michael Walker made serious waves after converting fully to wide receiver. Even the line brings back four starters. The big issue is the loss of starting quarterback Patrick Towles.

Granted, he wasn’t anything more than mediocre last season, but the position battle remains undecided between two relatively inexperienced players. Right now the leading candidate appears to be redshirt junior Darius Wade, who at least has some reps at quarterback. But redshirt freshman Anthony Brown got substantial looks in spring practice and started for the Gold team in the Boston College spring game.

Once again, the hope for the Eagles lies on the other side of the ball. Harold Landry is a defensive end that could’ve been a first round draft pick if he had left after 2016. Instead, he decided to come back for his senior season. Landry is the star of the defense, setting a Boston College record for single season sacks (16.5) and is second all-time in single-season tackles for loss (22.0) in Chestnut Hill. He won’t be alone however. Leading tackler Conor Strachan is back, along with most of the secondary. Coordinator Jim Reid also enters his second year with the program.

If one thinks the Eagles’ offense will improve, then the team itself will also improve. But the past couple of seasons indicate that it is by no means a guarantee.