Better or Worse: How Each FSU Opponent Projects for 2017 (Part I)

Florida State football in 2017 will have to go through a difficult schedule if it wants to get back to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2014.

This was already apparent when the Seminoles scheduled the Alabama Crimson Tide for their first contest of the season. The Seminoles have never shied away from tough out-of-conference match-ups, and Alabama might be the toughest yet. Most assume that the ACC scheduling provides some “breaks” against teams who routinely find themselves near the bottom of the conference standings.

This was true for long stretches in ACC history, but 2016 began to indicate that the conference was moving up towards the top of the Power 5 group. 2017 will likely provide another data point in that trend.

The Seminoles have 12 regular season games on tap (11 vs. FBS schools). Below is a quick look at all their FBS opponents for the upcoming year. We’re attempting to decide whether or not that opponent projects to be better or worse from their 2016 iteration.

If there are few indicators either way, they will be labeled “neutral”. The numbers listed (if available) are 2016 record, returning starters, S&P offensive rankings, and S&P defensive rankings.

Alabama Crimson Tide – Neutral

Key Returners: Jalen Hurts (QB), Damien Harris (RB), Calvin Ridley (WR), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S), Da’Shawn Hand (DE)

Head coach Nick Saban has brought in enough talent that Alabama’s second string alone could win 10 games. The Crimson Tide made it to the national championship in 2016 despite only returning 11 starters. It should be assumed that with the mixture of talent, Saban, and defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, Alabama simply won’t “get worse” in any significant way.

It is going to make a major bowl game and have the best odds of anyone else to make the playoff. Perhaps the biggest question mark will be new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and how he utilizes the returning production.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks – Better

Key Returners: David Griffith (LB), Chase Day (LB), Caleb Tucker (DE), Marcus Hubbard (S), Shaquille Warren (DL)

ULM football did not have a particularly notable 2016. Keep in mind that it had a first-year head coach in Matt Viator, and lost starting quarterback Garrett Smith along the way. The Warhawks finished just 4-8 on the year with four different games ending in a 30-plus point loss. Despite this, 2017 figures to be kinder to the Warhawks. Their offense returns Smith, leading receiver R.J. Turner, and second leading rusher Thomas Koufie among others. It’s unlikely that they will dip below their 110th ranking in points per game last season.

The defense still contains the most promise for the team. It has nine starters returning, including leading tacklers at linebacker in David Griffith and Chase Day, as well as the team’s best defensive end with Caleb Tucker (9.5 sacks/tackles for loss). The Warhawks are going to need it after they gave up over 40 points per game last season, finishing at 122nd in the nation.

Miami Hurricanes – Better

Key Returners: Mark Walton (RB), Chad Thomas (DE), Ahmmon Richards (WR), R.J. McIntosh (DT)

The early returns from the Mark Richt era have been encouraging for Miami football. The improved results on the field have lead to an uptick in recruiting, and the Hurricanes look like they could actually compete in the ACC Coastal next year. Replacing quarterback Brad Kaaya is going to be tough, but leading rusher Mark Walton and leading receiver Ahmmon Richards will help cushion the blow to whoever is under center. Miami also presents a decent corps of offensive linemen.

Defense is where Miami surprised in 2016 and where it will continue to surprise in 2017. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz did a fantastic job with a relatively young group, and now eight major contributors return. The Hurricanes already finished 13th in S&P rankings with a trio of freshman linebackers and a largely unproven defensive line. Now, they return multiple NFL caliber players on the line and all those freshman have experience. The secondary presumes to be a weak spot with the departure of multiple starters. If the first year of Diaz signaled anything however, Miami will once again field a top defense.

N.C. State Wolfpack – Better

Key Returners: Ryan Finley (QB), Bradley Chubb (DE), Jaylen Samuels (WR), Airius Moore (LB)

The N.C. State game on Sept. 23 could not come at a worse time for FSU. It’s a week after the Miami game, so the potential for a letdown is high. Add in that the Wolfpack could be one of the surprise teams in 2017, and all Seminoles fans should be prepared for a close game.

Returning 10 starters on either side of the ball is almost guaranteed improvement. The Wolfpack weren’t even bad on offense last year, considering they finished 55th in the offensive S&P category. Now they return almost everyone, including quarterback Ryan Finley who threw for over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. Their leading rusher Matt Dayes is gone, which might be a harder replacement than expected. The entire line and top four receivers will negate any drop-off.

Defensively, N.C. State is going to be one of the best in the nation. It already ranked 11th in S&P defense, so bringing back eight starters only figures to put it into the top 10. The defensive line is going to be a task for any team to handle. Four starters are now all seniors. Defensive end Bradley Chubb had 10 sacks last season and projects to be a first round draft pick. Much like Miami, the N.C. State secondary is where it’ll need to figure out who to start. But if the front seven plays like most expect them to, it’s going to be hard to do anything against offensively against the team from Raleigh.