FSU Baseball: Peaking at the Right Time — Merit or Myth?

Few would dispute that Florida State is playing its best baseball of 2017. After spending the final couple weeks of the regular season unranked, the Seminoles have become favorites to reach the College World Series for the first time since 2012.

During the recent hot streak, it hasn’t been uncommon to hear from the fan base, how the Seminoles were “peaking at the right time”. FSU has won four in a row after dropping its first game of the Tallahassee Regional and 16 of 19, dating back to May 5.

As Florida State entered its final series of the regular season, some had speculated that it was on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament. After taking both games of what became a 2-game series thanks to a rain-out against then second-ranked Louisville, FSU went a perfect 4-0 at the ACC Tournament.

During the conference tournament, FSU would beat Louisville for a third time and eventually North Carolina for the title. Both of those schools went on to earn national seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

With the Super Regional against Sam Houston State set to take place on Saturday, we decided to examine whether the “peaking at the right time” claim has any real historical significance. FSU is 16-4 in its last 20 games. Here’s a look at the last 10 national champions and their records in the 20 games prior to the NCAA Super Regional round:

Just about every team on the list has a winning record, which isn’t a surprise given that teams that reach the College World Series typically tend to be really good teams. The outlier on the chart is unquestionably Oregon State, which limped into the NCAA Super Regional. The 10 losses in the 20 games leading up the Super Regional was more than the Beavers lost in all other games combined that year.

Aside from the Beavers, the worst any of the last 10 national championships have finished in the 20 games leading up to the Super Regional is 13-7, which was done three times by Fresno State in 2008, South Carolina in 2010 and Virginia two years ago.

For Virginia, the 13-7 stretch yields a winning percentage (.650) on par with its season average (.647). For South Carolina, that was actually worse than it was throughout the season (.771).

Fresno State was college baseball’s ultimate Cinderella in 2008. Entering the WAC Tournament, the Bulldogs were just 29-27 before taking college baseball by storm. In Fresno State’s case however, the “peaking at the right time” cliche seems to apply. Prior before the 13-7 mark heading into the Super Regional, the Bulldogs were just 20-21 overall on the season.

The team on the list with the best record in the previous 20 games is last year’s champion, Coastal Carolina and LSU in 2009, who each went 16-4. The 16-4 record or .800 winning percentage for Coastal Carolina last season is slightly better than its season percentage (.753), but prior to the streak, the Chanticleers were winning at a .721 clip, so the peaking late in the season claim has some merit in this case.

In the case of LSU in 2009, the 16-4 record in the 20 games leading up to the Super Regional is consistent with what it did throughout the year (.767). The same seems to be true for Arizona and UCLA in 2012 and 2013, who each went 15-5 leading up to Super Regionals.

With the exception of Oregon State in 2007, there does seem to be a correlation between playing well late in the year through regionals and then being able to compete for a national championship, but most of the last 10 College World Series winners played great throughout the course of the entire season. While it may, in recent history, seem like a requirement that playing well late in the year is necessary to win a national championship, it is obviously far from a guarantee.

There are plenty of teams to be “peaking at the right time”, only to fall short of a title. As the school with the fourth most College World Series appearances and the most without a title, no one knows that better than Florida State.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson