West Region Sweet 16 Primer: (9) FSU vs. (4) Gonzaga

With an outcome that nobody could have predicted just a couple weeks ago, the Florida State Seminoles men’s basketball team is moving on to the Sweet 16 to face off against the fourth-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Seminoles, the No. 9 seed in the West Region, got here by beating Missouri and Xavier — two teams who received a higher seed than Florida State. The win over Xavier was the first win over a 1-seed in program history.

Now FSU flies out to California for one of the more unexpected match-ups of the tournament. Gonzaga is a team that made it to the national championship last season before falling to the North Carolina Tar Heels.

That team may have suffered a few key departures, but the identity is still intact. How it matches up against Florida State is an interesting situation. While the Bulldogs look to keep their hopes of returning to the title game alive Thursday night, the Seminoles aim for their first Elite Eight appearance in 25 years.

The Basics

The Gonzaga Bulldogs went 27-4 in the regular season and 17-1 in the West Coast Conference. They won both the conference regular season and the tournament championships. Their first two NCAA Tournament games were against UNC-Greensboro and Ohio State, with both contests being decided by less than 10 points. The Bulldogs rank 10th in points per game (84.2) and 50th in points allowed (67.5). Ken Pomeroy’s rankings put Gonzaga at 12th offensively and 14th defensively.

Gonzaga Strengths

Bullies in the Paint – Little has changed with Gonzaga’s strengths from a year ago when it made the national title game. The Bulldogs power through teams with their dominant post players, who will pose a serious challenge to Florida State’s big men. This strength appears to center around three forwards in particular: Johnathan Williams (13.6 points per game, 8.4 rebounds per game), Killian Tillie (12.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG), and Rui Hachimura (11.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG).

Each of these players brings his own twist to the strategy. Williams is a fierce rebounder and consistent scorer; Tillie is a deep threat who hits over 47 percent of his 3-point attempts and Hachimura is a mix of both, though he’s not much of a threat outside the arc. Hachimura showed out against Ohio State with 25 points, four rebounds, and five blocks, and that was with him going 6-for-12 from the free throw line.

Gonzaga will be the toughest challenge yet when it comes to cleaning up the boards. It ranks fifth in the nation at total rebounding percentage, thanks to the 13th-ranked defensive rebounding percentage and 47th-ranked offensive rebounding percentage. Florida State had a lot of issues stopping Xavier’s Kerem Kanter around the rim, and comparatively, he was not as talented as Gonzaga’s options.

Shot Contesting – Head coach Mark Few instills very solid defensive play into his team every year. This past season is no different. Gonzaga ranks in the top 20 for opponent effective field goal percentage, thanks to its versatility in both man-to-man and zone defense. It also helps having the aforementioned size advantage, since all of Williams, Tillie, and Hachimura can hold their own in either situation.

Few Mistakes – Part of the elite offense is based on the lack of mistakes. The Bulldogs rank 33rd in turnovers per possession — a feat which also boosts their third-ranked offensive efficiency rating. Both Missouri and Xavier committed more than 15 turnovers against Florida State, and it was apparent in both games how much momentum it gave the Seminoles.

Gonzaga Weaknesses

Mediocre Disruption – For as sound as the defense is, Gonzaga doesn’t actually force many turnovers. It is a sub-par 145th in steals per possession and 118th in block percentage.

Spotty Free Throws – Florida State fans can rejoice at seeing another team in the tournament struggle from the charity stripe. Gonzaga comes in at 190th in the nation with a 71 percent overall free throw mark. In their first two tournament games, the Bulldogs were almost doomed by their lack of conversions. As a team, they shot below 62 percent in each contest and found themselves having to scramble in late-game situations. Williams and Hachimura were noticeably deficient, going just 12-of-29 on free throws.

Limited Guard Ability – The reason that we discussed Florida State in such a positive way on the podcast is how it matches up with Gonzaga’s backcourt. Guards Zach Norvell Jr. and Josh Perkins are the two names to know here, as they are both gifted scorers (Norvell dropped 28 against Ohio State). But beyond them, Gonzaga is somewhat limited with its options. There is Silas Melson, who has started every game this season, but he hasn’t scored more than 12 points in a game since January. No other guard averages more than five minutes.

FSU Key to Victory

Attack the guards early – Florida State needs to come out and flex the same muscles that it did during the Xavier win. Guys like Trent Forrest, Terance Mann, P.J. Savoy, and Braian Angola should be aggressive from the very start and put all the pressure on Gonzaga’s big men to carry the scoring load. The Seminoles can score in a multitude of ways and leave Mark Few wondering where his defense is going to come from.

Gonzaga Key to Victory

Spread out the middle of the FSU defense – If Hachimura and Tillie can stretch the floor and get FSU centers Ike Obiagu and Christ Koumadje to follow them out, Gonzaga will find it much easier to run the offense and give someone like Williams or Norvell the space to operate. For as good a defender as both players can be, they’re still vulnerable against athletic forwards that thrive in 1-on-1 situations.

Predictions

Lead Writer Clint Eiland: FSU, 77-70.

Admittedly, I chose FSU to lose in each of the previous tournament games. But the Xavier win on Sunday showed a defensive willingness and resilience that had been missing since January. Florida State’s strengths go right against Gonzaga’s weaknesses, and the Bulldogs will likely be slowed down by competent defenders down low. It’ll be a close one throughout the entire contest, but I’m actually picking FSU to advance to the Elite Eight this time around.

Editor Mike Ferguson: Gonzaga, 72-71.

Florida State has to like its chances, but the size inside for the Bulldogs could pose real trouble. The Seminoles were outrebounded by a Xavier team that wasn’t as good inside as Gonzaga and sharpshooter Killian Tillie has yet to find his range in the tournament. All the intangibles also seem to be in Gonzaga’s favor since the Bulldogs are more rested, closer to home and no stranger to a stage this big. For FSU, getting contributions from one of its x-factors such as C.J. or M.J. Walker would be enormous.