Home Stretch: Securing a Tournament Spot for Florida State

With just nine games remaining in the 2017-18 regular season, Florida State basketball has to feel good about its current situation.

The Seminoles are currently 16-5 with a 5-4 ACC record midway through conference play. They’ve rebounded after two tough losses to Louisville and Miami, going 4-1 in the next five games and putting themselves above water in the conference.

They now head to Wake Forest and Louisville for back-to-back road contests before coming back home and trying to upset the No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has Leonard Hamilton’s team as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

To give a clearer picture of the situation, here are the remaining games:

• at Wake Forest
• at Louisville
• vs. Virginia
• at Notre Dame
• vs. Clemson
• vs. Pittsburgh
• at NC State
• at Clemson
• vs. Boston College

Road games are always tough, but FSU can go a long way towards shoring up their case with a victory over Wake Forest in a few hours. The Demon Deacons are one of the worst teams in the conference (9-14 overall, 1-8 ACC) and are coming off seven consecutive losses. Florida State meanwhile is riding the momentum of three straight victories and has ample time to prepare for the road trip.

There’s not many excuses for a loss to Wake Forest. Unless the injury bug strikes at the worst time, the Seminoles should win this one easily.

Louisville is more interesting. Arguably the worst loss of the season for the Seminoles came against Louisville at the Donald L. Tucker Center on Jan. 10. Florida State was up at halftime and by as many as 17 and looked in complete control of the game for 20 minutes. The Cardinals then stormed back in the second half and snapped the FSU home winning streak at 29 games.

How much of that game was a fluke will be on full display. The Seminoles lost that contest largely due to an offensive cold streak that they never fully remedied in the second half. In some respects, Hamilton made the wrong call to slow down the offensive tempo coming out of the locker room. Florida State never looked comfortable, and its 8-for-26 shooting effort in the second half best highlights the main issue that provoked the disappointing loss against the Cardinals.

Then again, Louisville is a superior opponent to Wake Forest and has actually gone 4-1 in its past five games. It would not be shocking to see FSU drop this one, though hopefully it won’t do it in such devastating fashion.

Splitting even with the next two games would have little effect on the tournament outlook. It might hurt a little, but Louisville’s recent stretch makes a potential loss sting a bit less.

Virginia in Tallahassee is interesting. Should the Seminoles complete a task that only one other team has done up to this point, they will absolutely lock down a tournament spot barring a loss in almost every other remaining game. Virginia is a legitimate title pick whose defense is stunningly efficient.

Florida State certainly won’t be the favorite going in, but it’ll give them the Cavaliers its best shot. FSU has won the last two in the series, including a thrilling 60-58 contest in Charlottesville last season on a last-second 3-pointer by Dwayne Bacon.

The more one breaks it down into categories, the easier it looks for FSU. If it wants to be 90-plus percent sure of a NCAA Tournament bid, then 20 wins is the magic number to reach.

Easy Wins

• at Wake Forest
• vs. Pittsburgh

After Wake Forest, there remains just one team that FSU should have no trouble with — the Pittsburgh Panthers on Feb. 18. Not only is the game at home, but Pittsburgh is currently dead last in the ACC at 8-14 overall without a single conference victory. Those should be two easy additions to the win column.

Toss-Up

• at Louisville
• vs. Notre Dame
• vs. Clemson
• at N.C. State
• at Clemson
• vs. Boston College

The vast majority of the upcoming games are included in this category because none of the opponents have showed themselves to be markedly worse or better than FSU. In the case of Louisville and Boston College, both teams beat FSU earlier in the year, but not in dominating fashion.

How close are these teams? Clemson, Louisville, and Notre Dame are all in the top 40, according to Ken Pomeroy (FSU is 21st). N.C. State is 65th and Boston College is 80th. Keep in mind that the Wolfpack recently beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill and the Eagles already have a win against FSU under their belts. Each contest will likely be a battle to the final minutes.

FSU currently has two wins over teams in the Kenpom top 25 (North Carolina and Florida). The final nine games have three opportunities to grab another, including Clemson twice. Getting at least one win over the Tigers would be ideal, since they’re a considerably easier opponent than the Cavaliers and they’re likely your last shot at impressing the NCAA Selection Committee. Even then, defeating a team like Louisville or Notre Dame is notable as well.

Assuming they beat Wake and Pitt, the Seminoles just need two victories from that list to cross the threshold and enter the ACC Tournament with pressure lifted from their shoulders.

Compared to what the expectations were before the season started, the current situation is astounding. Most commentators had Florida State pegged as a bubble team who would need key victories down the stretch to make it. The stretch is here and the Seminoles are sitting pretty with 16 wins. At this point, they could lose the majority of their final games and still be very confident in their chances.

Barring a catastrophic collapse, Florida State has an inside track to the dance for a second straight season.