An incredible 12-2 start with victories over Florida and North Carolina has surprised even the most optimistic of Florida State basketball fans. Head coach Leonard Hamilton has his team playing superb basketball at just the right time — the ACC stretch started a week ago and the Seminoles already grabbed a victory over the No. 12 Tar Heels.
Even in the 101-93 loss to the Duke Blue Devils last weekend, Florida State was very competitive and looked like a true ACC foe. There’s been a significant change in the team’s identity that has allowed this to happen. For the first time in almost four seasons, Florida State can threaten teams from beyond the arc.
That seems like a big departure from the recent tendencies of Hamilton-coached teams. The past few seasons have witnessed a team putting the offensive load on a small handful of players, while certain guys are tasked with hitting 3-pointers. Florida State always had good 3-point shooters, but it just wasn’t a good 3-point shooting team.
Some numbers to put that in perspective: FSU bottomed out in the 2014-15 season with a putrid 31.3 percent mark from 3-point range. That was good for 298th in the nation. The next season, the Seminoles jumped to 34.1 percent and 197th place — marked improvement, but not enough to make much of a difference on the court. They slightly improved last season with 34.7 percent shooting from deep and a 180th national ranking.
Now? The Seminoles have made their biggest leap yet. In the past 14 games, Florida State has hit 38.6 percent of its attempts from deep. That difference of just under four percentage points has catapulted the Noles to 53rd in the nation.
Keep in mind that there is still half the season left to play and that number might change. But it’s clear that a large part of the 12-2 record is due to the offensive spark the newfound success provides. Beyond that, teams actually having to respect Florida State’s outside shooting.
In Florida State’s three games against Florida, UNC, and Duke (its three toughest opponents yet according to Ken Pomeroy), the Seminoles shot 38.4 percent from deep. The average might be slightly misleading, since the Florida game was only slightly above 30 percent, but each of those games had pivotal moments revolving around FSU converting 3-point attempts. In its two ACC games against the conference’s two most storied programs and top 15 teams, FSU has made 26 triples and is shooting nearly 43 percent.
It was typically C.J. Walker or M.J. Walker providing the boost, though even players like Phil Cofer and Braian Angola got in on the action. Not surprisingly, those three games were some of Florida State’s best all-around performances considering the competition.
An underrated aspect is the mere threat of the 3-pointer. Teams can have great 3-point shooters but opponents might still be OK with letting them shoot. If one guy can somehow take over the game and win, then more power to him. It becomes an asset when the team as a whole forces a defense to adjust.
It should not be surprising that the other Florida State loss to Oklahoma State involved just 15 attempts by the Seminoles. That is well below their 24.8 per game attempt average, and with only six of those attempts made (five by Cofer); it’s easy to see why the Cowboys were able to hold the FSU offense to just 70 points.
Compared to the shooting percentage trend, the attempts per game trend might provide a better explanation. The highest average of the past three seasons was 19.2 from last year. The highest ranking? 226th.
Compare that to this year’s placement at 76th overall and it’s obvious how much different this team looks on the tape. These are not the Seminoles of the past few seasons. They have added a key weapon to their arsenal despite losing some of their best players, including top three scorers.
We will round back to the point we made right at the end of the non-conference stretch. Florida State has focused on making the 3-point shot an integral part of the offense, not just a change of pace mode for scoring. If it can keep up its current play, it’ll exceed all expectations it had entering the season.
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