The first half of the 2017 has gone anything except as planned for Florida State. The Seminoles are just 2-3 for the first time since 2011 and with still a healthy slate remaining, may be on the verge of missing a bowl for the first time since 1981.
To get to six wins, FSU is tasked with winning four of its six remaining games. Looking at the schedule last week, there were probably at least three games that fans probably would have felt good about — four if scheduling Louisiana-Monroe for December is still on the table.
Following a crazy week in college football, the upcoming slate for Florida State looks a bit murkier. Some of the tougher games now appear more winnable while some of the more sure things are now in question.
Entering the year, this week’s opponent Louisville looked to be one of the more important contests on the slate for FSU. The Cardinals returned the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson and last season, handed the Seminoles their worst loss under head coach Jimbo Fisher, 63-20.
As for Jackson, he hasn’t taken any sort of noticeable step back, but his defense certainly has. Although Louisville is 4-3 this season, it has lost six of its last 10 games going back to last season. In four ACC games this year, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 41.5 points with the most recent contest being a 45-42 upset loss at home to Boston College.
The Eagles were winless in ACC play prior to the contest and had not scored more than 28 points in any game. The 45 put up by Boston College was its most against an FBS opponent since November 2013 and most against an ACC opponent since October 2009.
As for Boston College, the Seminoles will visit it on Oct. 27. For the last few years, the Eagles have been known for their defense, but that hasn’t been the case this season. It’s possible the recent win will spring some confidence in a BC team now with bowl aspirations, making the long trip to Chestnut Hill on a short week less of a gimme for FSU.
The month of November starts with a home contest against Syracuse. FSU has defeated the Orange by an average of more than 32 points per game in four ACC match-ups since Syracuse joined the conference.
The 2017 season looked like it would be more of the same as the Orange lost to Middle Tennessee State in Week 2 just a week after the Blue Raiders were humiliated by Vanderbilt. Last Friday however, the Orange did the unthinkable by becoming the first ACC Atlantic division team to beat then No. 2 and reigning national champion Clemson since FSU in 2014.
Though the loss to Middle Tennessee State looks bad, the Orange were competitive on the road with the likes of LSU and N.C. State. This isn’t to say that Syracuse is going to walk into Doak Campbell Stadium on Nov. 4 and beat the Seminoles, but it’s not a game to take lightly.
The recent loss to the Orange has shaken Clemson’s aura of invincibility. The Tigers will probably still be hefty favorites when they host the Seminoles on Nov. 11, but an Orange defense that had allowed at least 30 points in three of their previous six games held Clemson in check. There’s also real questions regarding the health of quarterback Kelly Bryant.
The one game FSU probably doesn’t have to worry about losing comes on Nov. 18 against Delaware State. The Hornets, who play in FCS, are 0-6.
The regular season for FSU concludes on Nov. 25 at rival Florida, who like the Seminoles, have had a tough season so far. One would think this game being in Gainesville would favor the Gators, but that’s a place where they have lost consecutive games to then unranked teams in Texas A&M and LSU, who was coming off a home loss to Troy.
With a 2-3 record and the Seminoles needing fourth quarter touchdowns to beat Wake Forest and Duke, it’s hard to be real optimistic moving forward. On the flip side, each of FSU’s three losses came to teams currently ranked in the top 16 and all three were competitive.
How FSU finishes the 2017 season will say a lot about Fisher and his staff’s ability to motivate players with only consolations prizes to play for. After a crazy weekend in college football, how exactly that unravels is anyone’s guess.
Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson
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