FSU Football: “What-Ifs” for September and October

The excitement for Florida State fans that was in the air prior to the season has become a pool of misery as the Seminoles are just 2-5 and in danger of missing a bowl for the first time since 1981.

Prior to last Friday night’s shellacking against Boston College, Florida State had been competitive in every game it had played. Before the dismal showing against the Eagles, FSU’s three ACC losses had come by a grand total of 13 points.

For all that isn’t in 2017, it’s easy to look back on what could have been. We’ll do that here as we examine the major “what-ifs” from the first two months of the season.

vs. Alabama

What if pass interference is called in the end zone late in the first half?
The biggest controversy from the Alabama contest came late in the second quarter with FSU trailing 10-7. The Seminoles had 3rd-and-10 from the Crimson Tide’s 20-yard-line when quarterback Deondre Francois fired for Nyqwan Murray in the end zone. Murray appeared to be interfered with on the play by Alabama’s Tony Brown, but no call was made. FSU was forced to settle for a 37-yard field goal attempt by Ricky Aguayo which was blocked and the Tide took a 10-7 lead into the locker room. From there on out, FSU never mounted a serious scoring threat in a 24-7 loss.

What if Keith Gavin stays in the end zone?
With FSU trailing 13-7 in the third quarter, Keith Gavin took a kickoff deep in the end zone and returned it to the 11-yard-line before fumbling and allowing Alabama to recover. It took Damien Harris just one play to find the end zone and make it 21-7. Had Gavin stayed in, FSU would have got the ball at the 25-yard-line and not have been forced to throw on every down behind two scores. It could have been methodical in its approach without the fumble and would have needed just a touchdown to take the lead.

What if Deondre Francois isn’t injured?
This is the biggest question that FSU fans probably ask themselves. Francois tore his patella tendon in the fourth quarter of the opener with the Seminoles trailing 24-7. If they don’t lose Francois, most think they would be a lot better than 2-5 at the moment.

vs. N.C. State

What if Blackman doesn’t fumble late in the first half?
Against N.C. State on Sept. 23, Florida State fell behind 10-0, but looked to be on the verge of tying or taking the lead. Trailing 10-7 and facing 3rd-and-3 from the N.C. State 33, quarterback James Blackman made a nice scramble for a first down, but was unfortunately stripped of the ball, which rolled all the way to the 2-yard-line before being recovered by the Wolfpack. It was one of many missed scoring opportunities. If the Seminoles are able to go ahead, they could have focused more on running the football and the defensive scheme would have also been different.

What if Aguayo doesn’t miss?
With over three minutes to play in the second quarter and FSU trailing 10-7, Ricky Aguayo came on the field to attempt what looked to be a chip shot field goal from 30 yards out. Unfortunately, his kick stayed wide and FSU remained behind. It took N.C. State just four plays to go 80 yards for a touchdown and back up by 10 points. From there, FSU was stuck playing catch-up for the rest of the day.

What if Derwin James’ interception isn’t overturned by penalty?
With FSU trailing 17-13 midway through the third quarter, the Seminoles looked to have made a defensive play that could have changed the game. Cornerback Tarvarus McFadden looked to make a great play on a pass from N.C. State quarterback Ryan Finley that was deflected and caught by safety Derwin James at the Wolfpack’s 40-yard-line. McFadden however, was called for a controversial pass interference penalty and N.C. State would drive for a field goal.

What if FSU makes the tackle on Nyheim Hines?
With FSU trailing 27-21 late and N.C. State facing 3rd-and-7, the Wolfpack were willing to concede the drive and punt the ball with just over a minute to play. Rather than get a stop, the Seminoles allowed N.C. State running back Nyheim Hines to run for 15 yards to ice the game. Driving for a touchdown in less than a minute with a true freshman quarterback would have been a tall task for FSU, but at least it would have had a shot.

vs. Miami

What if Miami doesn’t convert 3rd-and-20?
Florida State took a 3-0 lead into halftime against Miami on Oct. 7 as the defense looked to be in control for FSU. The Seminoles looked to be on the verge of getting another stop as Miami faced 3rd-and-20 from its own 43. FSU rushed just three as quarterback Malik Rosier complete a 32-yard pass to Ahmmon Richards for a first down. It would lead to a Miami field goal which tied the game and began a streak of Miami scoring drives on four of its final seven possessions.

What if Fisher plays for a touchdown?
With FSU and Miami tied 10 and the Seminoles facing 3rd-and-9 from the Hurricanes’ 25-yard-line, FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher elected to call a draw, which gained Jacques Patrick four yards. That set up a 38-yard Aguayo field goal which put the Seminoles ahead, but a touchdown could have made a big difference in that situation. Rather than scoring seven points, FSU settled for three before losing by four.

What if Kyle Meyers tackles Braxton Berrios?
Miami’s final drive capped with a winning touchdown pass from Rosier to Darrell Langham with six seconds left, but that play might have never happened without a key third down conversion. On 3rd-and-10 from the FSU 34-yard-line, Rosier found receiver Braxton Berrios for an 11-yard gain and a first down. Berrios was initially short, but FSU cornerback Kyle Meyers was unable to make the tackle two yards shy. Had that happened, the Hurricanes would have been forced to settle for about a 43-yard field goal. Michael Badgley is a good kicker, but that’s not an easy one in a pressure-packed situation on the road.

vs. Louisville

What if Aguayo makes the third quarter field goal?
With Florida State and Louisville tied 14-14 on the opening drive of the third quarter, the Seminoles elected to try a 44-yard Aguayo field goal on 4th-and-3 from the Louisville 27-yard-line. Rather than go for it, Aguayo’s kick sailed right. On the ensuing possession, the Cardinals went 73 yards in six plays and never trailed again in a 31-28 victory. The miss began a big momentum swing in a contest where FSU knew it had to score a lot.

What if Blackman doesn’t fumble late?
After rallying for 14 straight points and coming up with a key fourth down stop, FSU looked to be in position to beat the Cardinals. With the score 28-28, FSU had reached the Louisville 21-yard-line and was one first down away from being able to melt the clock and kick a game-winning field goal. On 1st-and-10 however, Blackman was stripped of the ball and Louisville recovered. The Cardinals were able to march 59 yards in eight plays as Blanton Creque’s 34-yard field goal with five seconds left served as the game-winner.

at Boston College

What if FSU doesn’t fumble inside the 10?
Florida State’s contest against Boston College last week wasn’t close, but early on, the FSU offense showed some fight. Trailing 7-0 in the first quarter, FSU faced 2nd-and-goal from the BC 9-yard-line. Unfortunately, Blackman and running back Cam Akers were unable to complete a hand-off and the ball fell to the ground where Boston College recovered with 3:36 to play in the first quarter. The Seminoles never sniffed the end zone again in a 35-3 loss. If they were able to answer with a touchdown and tie the game, it’s possible things play out differently.

Summary

There are a number of key plays through the first two months of the season that could have made a dramatic difference on the season that FSU has had. It is equally as important to note that contests at Wake Forest and Duke that the Seminoles pulled out were also close to being losses.

For teams that find a way to lose the close games rather than win them, there are often cultural issues that persist underneath the surface. The one thing that looks certain at this point is that sweeping changes are coming.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson