FSU and Alabama vs. Common Opponents in 2016

Less than three weeks separate us from the highly-anticipated opener between Florida State and Alabama. The Crimson Tide are currently a 7-point favorite for the Sept. 2 contest in Atlanta.

The contest looks to be one of top-5 teams and national championship hopefuls. No one would argue that Alabama didn’t have a better season than the Seminoles last year, but against common opponents, the results were similar.

CLEMSON

Against eventual national champion Clemson, both teams were one stop away from defeating the Tigers. Deshaun Watson’s 1-yard touchdown pass to Hunter Renfrow with one second left in the National Championship will forever live in Clemson lore, but Watson ripped FSU’s collective hearts out just two months prior.

In that Tallahassee contest, the Seminoles led 34-29 when Watson’s 34-yard scoring strike to Jordan Leggett with 2:06 remaining lifted Clemson to a 37-34 lead and eventual victory.

Statistically speaking, the games were also pretty even. Both gave up 511 yards of offense to Clemson and both forced two turnovers. FSU however, finished with 73 more yards against the Tigers than Alabama, but also turned it over once.

OLE MISS

Both Florida State and Alabama played a big part in Ole Miss’ early-season misery last year, with each winning shootouts. FSU overcame a 28-6 deficit in the season-opener in Orlando to win 45-34 while Alabama crawled out of a 24-3 hole in Oxford to win 48-43.

In each contest, turnovers played a major role. Florida State forced four Chad Kelly turnovers while Alabama forced three and scored three non-offensive touchdowns in the win. The immediate possession changes were critical in the comeback wins for the Seminoles and Crimson Tide.

Where the biggest disparity in the contests were was in terms of total offense. FSU outgained the Rebels by 200 yards while Alabama was outgained by 30 yards by Ole Miss.

FLORIDA

If you looked at both Florida State and Alabama’s 2016 contests with Florida just from a statistical standpoint, you would think the Seminoles beat Florida much more easily. FSU outgained the rival Gators by 180 yards, sacked Florida six times and held it to 0-for-12 on third down conversions.

Against Alabama, Florida was an efficient 7-for-16 on third down and the Crimson Tide outgained Florida by only 111 yards. Still, the Crimson Tide’s margin of victory over Florida was 20 points higher and the biggest reason why was turnovers.

Alabama forced three turnovers and didn’t give it away and also scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns. Florida’s only touchdown against Florida State was non-offensive; all of those are big reasons why the disparity was so large.

Alabama beat Florida for the SEC Championship, 54-16. FSU beat Florida to conclude the regular season, 31-13.

CONCLUSION

Below is a chart of how Florida State and Alabama fared statistically against common opponents last season:

Against common opponents, FSU fared better than Alabama in four of the seven listed statistical categories. In each of the three common opponents, the results were similar although Alabama’s win over Florida was much more lopsided.

Given that 2017 is a new year, none of this means much, but the numbers do suggest that perhaps the Crimson Tide and Seminoles weren’t as far apart last year as some would think.

Against the three common opponents, Alabama scored five non-offensive touchdowns, which offsets all the perceived statistical edges that the Seminoles may had. If FSU is to beat the Crimson Tide on Sept. 2, it almost certainly cannot allow that to happen.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson