With Dalvin Cook, Roderick Johnson and three veteran wide receivers gone, the face of the Florida State offense for 2017 will be redshirt sophomore quarterback Deondre Francois.
Francois shined as a freshman a year ago, passing for 3,350 yards, rushing for 198 more and accounting for 25 total touchdowns (20 passing) against just seven interceptions. In the process, Francois was named ACC Rookie of the Year before rallying FSU past Michigan in the Orange Bowl to cement a top-10 finish.
For all of his accolades however, Francois still has areas in which he can improve. For example, Francois struggled with accuracy at times; he sometimes held the ball too long and didn’t have the greatest anticipation.
The good news for Francois is that under FSU head coach and renowned quarterback guru, Jimbo Fisher, signal-callers almost always improve in the second year as the team’s starter. In a piece from May, lead writer Clint Eiland broke down the numbers of how quarterbacks progressed from the first year to the second under Fisher, going back to his days as offensive coordinator at LSU.
In this piece, Eiland concluded that quarterbacks in the season year increase their completion rate on average by 7.4 percent, their passing yards per game numbers by nearly 60 per contest and their yards per attempt by nearly half a yard. The touchdown pass percentage drops while the interception percentage tends to increase.
Taking Francois’ numbers from last season and adding in past progression among passers, the FSU quarterback would finish with a 66.2 percent completion rate and an average of 8.86 yards per attempt while his yards per game average would go up to about 317 yards.
Over a 13-game season, Francois would finish with 4,121 yards passing and 20 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Over 14 games, Francois would finish with 4,438 yards passing, 20 touchdown passes and eight interceptions.
Though the touchdown and interception numbers would be different, the yardage and passing percentage totals would actually be better than what Jameis Winston did during his Heisman Trophy year of 2013. That might be enough to win Francois the Heisman, but expecting that type of increase might be a bit much to expect.
While FSU fans would love to see that type of production from Francois in his second season as the team’s starter, they should probably feel content even if he is half as successful as the average Fisher quarterback has been from the first year to the second. Reducing the totals in half would still result in a 62.5 percent completion percentage, 8.62 yards per attempt and 287.3 yards per game.
With those totals over a 13-game season, Francois would finish with 3,735 yards passing, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Over a 14-game season, Francois would pass for 4,022 yards with the same touchdown and interception totals.
Given Francois’ room for improvement and Fisher’s history with returning quarterbacks, there is certainly reason to be optimistic and excited about what the redshirt sophomore might do in 2017. It is worth noting that Fisher’s last returning quarterback, Jameis Winston, actually took a step back as a redshirt sophomore. After becoming the youngest player to win the Heisman Trophy the year before however, it would have been hard to do much better.
Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson
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