Historical Hypothetical: What if the Playoff System Had Been Around for the Bowden Years?

With Florida State projecting to be a playoff contender for 2017, multiple questions have arisen on what they will have to do to secure a spot. A loss to Alabama at the beginning of the season is clearly forgivable.

But what if the Seminoles lose two games and still win the ACC championship? Would the playoff committee include them in the final four, despite the loss column? What if they go 11-1 but somehow let Clemson win the conference again? There’s plenty of scenarios to think about, and in some ways, that’s the beauty of the playoff.

This has many Florida State fans wondering: what if the system was around during the Bobby Bowden years?

It’s become a bit of a running joke with how many times the Seminoles were close to another title during the Bowden dynasty. Despite all the list of accomplishments and top finishes, they were only able to end with two. That’s nothing to scoff at of course as they were arguably the best dynasty of all time, yet it still eats away at fans who saw just how close they came.

As a fun thought exercise, we’re going to look at the topic and determine if FSU would have any more rings to its name. We’ve gone back and compiled all the years that Florida State finished in the top four of the AP poll before its bowl game. We’ll then look at the probable match-ups and give our best guess as to what would have happened if the teams actually participated in a 4-team playoff.

The years where FSU won a national championship are excluded. As are the years where the Seminoles played in the de facto national championship, since they already had their chance and lost. We’re looking strictly at the years where they were denied a chance at the title. As with many “what if” pieces, pretty much everything one argues is going to be a hypothetical and not easily disproved. These are simply thought exercises.

1980

Top Four Teams: Georgia (1), Florida State (2), Pittsburgh (3), Oklahoma (4)

The Seminoles luck out with this pairing. In the real world, they played Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl and lost by a single point. With the AP rankings before the bowl games, they instead face Pittsburgh in this alternate reality. The additional good news? They faced Pittsburgh earlier in the regular season. That was a game at Doak Campbell Stadium that they won by 14 points. If we assume that the rematch does not result in a 15-point swing, then the Seminoles are on their way to the national championship.

From there, it becomes a guessing game. Would Georgia have beat Oklahoma to make it to the title game? The Bulldogs were the national champions in real life after going 12-0 with running back Herschel Walker and defeating No. 7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. But they also won multiple games by the skin of their teeth and did not play a challenging schedule. In fact, in Bill Connelly’s series looking at various strange years of college football, Georgia was one of the least likely champions ever. It’s not a given that it arrives back at the national championship.

Here’s what might provide some answers. If one looks at the S&P table that Connelly provides, they’ll notice quite the surprise at the top. Florida State was No. 1 by the end of the year, even with the Oklahoma loss accounted for. It had the No. 5 offense and No. 1 defense. Its only regular season loss was to the Miami Hurricanes by a single point. Has there ever been a 2-loss team with that small of a margin of error? With the college playoff system implemented, Florida State would have a much better chance of proving that it really was the best team in the nation.

Chalk this one up as +1 in the championship category.

1987

Top Four Teams: Oklahoma (1), Miami (2), Florida State (3), Syracuse (4)

As we enter the dynasty years, painful memories of missed field goals and failed 2-point attempts begin to appear. The latter applies to this season. As many will remember, in the one FSU loss of the season, the Seminoles decided to go for two against the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes with less than a minute left. It failed, and Miami would go on to win the national championship. FSU wouldn’t lose another game for the rest of the season and finished No. 2 after beating Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl.

Immediately, there is a conundrum. With these AP rankings, Florida State gets a rematch against Miami. Should the Seminoles be the favorite to win the second round? Ultimately, you have to assume that the rematch in some way benefits the team who lost in the first game. With that in mind, we’ll put down the Seminoles as the eventual victor and on to the national championship.

That means that it’s probably another Florida State-Oklahoma title match (though Syracuse would still be a tough battle). The Sooners were a wrecking ball at the beginning of the season, but when they started playing better teams later on, the games got much closer. That culminated in a loss to Miami. Would they fare better against Florida State? When looking at the numbers (again, citing Bill Connelly’s series) here’s what became apparent. Oklahoma did not face a defense ranked higher than 15th in the regular season. That was the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who they beat 17-7. While that’s a good victory, it’s also a clear step back from the 50-plus points they scored in five different games.

Florida State ranked eighth in the S&P defensive rankings. If they were able to slow down Oklahoma, the Seminoles No. 1 ranked offense could win the game for them. Put this down as another missed title for Bobby Bowden.

1988

Top Four Teams: Notre Dame (1), Miami (2), West Virginia (3), Florida State (4)

Another season, another lone loss to Miami. At least this one was no heartbreaker. The Seminoles got routed 31-0 to start the season in the Orange Bowl. It clearly didn’t affect them all that much considering they went undefeated the rest of the year. A string of 10 straight regular season victories allowed them to be ranked No. 4 going into bowl season, meaning they sneak into the playoffs in this scenario.

Unfortunately, that’s all they probably do in this timeline. Notre Dame’s defense was a top unit that routinely allowed them to coast to victories. Combine that with a top 10 offense and huge victories over USC, Michigan, and Miami, and it’s clear that the Seminoles are underdogs going into the game. Will they make it competitive? Almost certainly. The earlier blowout to Miami was more of an aberration, and they got better as the year went on — but not good enough to stop the Fighting Irish. You can’t win them all.

1992

Top Four Teams: Miami (1), Alabama (2), Florida State (3), Texas A&M (4)

This year was the second edition of a Wide Right miss that would spell doom for Florida State’s title chances. Alas, the playoff system is here to save the day yet again for the Seminoles. They go into the bracket with a 10-1 record and a No. 3 seed.

Their opponent is none other than the actual national champion Alabama Crimson Tide. Immediately, it’s clear that the transitive property is going to be flukey and not all that telling. Yes, Alabama did beat Miami 34-13 while FSU lost 19-16. But Alabama also scraped by the Florida Gators 28-21, whereas the Seminoles cruised to a nice 45-24 victory. What do the numbers say?

Well, the Crimson Tide defense is clearly the specialty, since they ranked No. 2 in the nation in estimated S&P ratings. The Seminoles somewhat counter that with the No. 2 offense, though their performance against a similarly ranked defense (Miami) indicate that it’s likely going to be a defensive battle. Supporting that conclusion is the fact that Alabama’s offense is ranked 20th while Florida State’s defense is 11th.

Given the sheer talent and reputation of Alabama’s defense, it’s hard to pick against the Tide. It was absolutely fantastic that year. While the Seminoles’ offense with Charlie Ward is absolutely nothing to scoff at, he still hadn’t fully entered the apex of his career. The Crimson Tide get past Florida State and still win the title in this alternate reality.

1997

Top Four Teams: Michigan (1), Nebraska (2), Tennessee (3), Florida State (4)

Perhaps no other year could use a playoff system (or even the BCS system) more than 1997. It holds the distinction of having a split title that has no true consensus. Both Michigan and Nebraska have great cases to be the one true champion, but the lack of a postseason match-up between the two will always leave college football aficionados wondering.

The good news is that this season was not impacted by a loss to Miami. The bad news is that it was impacted by a late loss to Florida. Much like the 1988 season, Florida State sneaks into the playoff with a No. 4 ranking after the regular season finale loss to the Gators in Gainesville. The first game is a very tough match-up with a Michigan team that wrecks havoc on defense (No. 1 in S&P) but somewhat suffers on offense (No. 45). Already Florida State has a distinct advantage on one side of the ball (No. 2 in offense) and can hang reasonably well on the other (No. 4 defense).

Frankly, the Seminoles would win the first game. Michigan’s defense would certainly prevent FSU from taking any sort of big lead, but all FSU would have to do is score around 21 points and keep Michigan at bay. That’s obviously easier to say now than actually do, yet so is everything in this article. It’d be an amazing match-up for sure.

From there, FSU would likely face Nebraska in the national championship (the Cornhuskers beat Tennessee 42-17 in real life). Much like their other bowl meetings, an FSU-Nebraska championship in 1997 might have been an all-time classic. One thing is clear: it’d be an absolute shootout between the No. 1 and No. 2 S&P offenses. In the end however, those late 90s Nebraska teams were absolute juggernauts. Much like FSU-Michigan, it’d be a great contest, but one that the Cornhuskers emerge victorious in.

Conclusion

The final tally? Two championships that could have been Florida State’s if college football always had the playoff system. Obviously, this relies on a ton of assumptions, yet is there anyone out there who doesn’t believe that Bobby Bowden has at least one more ring if that is the case?

Imagine the world where he has four championships instead of two. Quite honest, if that truly was the case, then he’d probably be the consensus greatest coach of all-time. But unfortunately that can only be fantasy, and we can never truly know how those teams would have fared in the current setup.

At the end of the day, it’s not like he didn’t have anything to show for it. He still has an argument for the greatest coach title as well. He still made Florida State into one of the premier programs in the country. No matter how many missed chances he experienced, every fan will still remember the times it actually happened.