There is little debate that Florida State baseball has disappointed up to this point.
The overall record is not bad. Let’s be clear about that. FSU will always be good with head coach Mike Martin at the helm. The Seminoles are 18-8 and 4-1 in their last five games.
They rank in the top 20 of multiple statistical categories both in the ACC and the nation. There’s still a lot of talent on the team and still tons of promise.
But being outside the top 10 nationally and fourth in the ACC is not what the team is aiming for.
Florida State was a near consensus top 5 pick in the preseason and projected to win a crowded ACC. It can still accomplish that and work its way back to postseason favorites. But with the season almost halfway over, the chances to do so will be the next four series against North Carolina, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina State, and Clemson.
While it might be unfortunate for fans to hear, the “easy” part of the Florida State’s schedule is over. The next four teams are ranked by Baseball America as No. 7, No. 11, unranked, and No. 5, respectively.
That means 3/4 of the upcoming teams the Seminoles face will be ranked higher than them. That is slightly concerning for Florida State’s hopes, because it has not shown its true ability against lesser opponents so far.
The Seminoles’ best series up to this point was probably Notre Dame, who they swept over three games by a combined score of 21-6. The only problem is that Notre Dame possesses an 8-15 overall record. It is fair to say that FSU still does not have a good series win on the season.
There are a couple things working in Florida State’s favor in the upcoming weeks. Mainly, three of the four series are at Dick Howser Stadium, including the three games against North Carolina and back-to-back contests with FGCU. The Seminoles do not have to leave Tallahassee until April 7 when they travel to Raleigh to play the Wolfpack, who happen to be the “weakest” team of the four.
A possible return of Drew Mendoza looms on the horizon as well. The hyped freshman has been sidelined with a broken thumb that kept him off the field for the beginning of the season.
Jackson Lueck, a sophomore outfielder, returned against Jacksonville last week and helped lead the comeback, and also contributed to the sweep over Notre Dame. As he gets back into the groove more, he should become a staple of the lineup and return as the reliable hitter that he proved to be.
Concerns are still there for Florida State. Good pitching seems to stymie the Seminoles to an absurd degree, considering how stacked the lineup is. It was on display once more against Florida, where they scored their first run against the Gators in over 30 innings. It was a single run as well.
That trend will need to break if they want come out of the upcoming games unscathed. Both North Carolina and Clemson tout excellent pitching, and FGCU is on a hot streak. If the Seminoles’ bats can’t start producing in the next few series, then it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to make much noise in the postseason.
Realistically, FSU needs to capture the series against N.C. State and one other of the three. Getting swept by any of the opponents would be incredibly discouraging, though maybe not so much if it is against the Eagles, since only two games are against them.
The floor remains at 5-6 regardless. Anything less and it indicates deeper problems within the team. Anything more and it shows that FSU has begun to realize its potential. While there will obviously be other factors to consider, the wins and losses are going to matter at the end of the day.
The rest of the season starts on Friday for Florida State. It faces a slight gauntlet ahead of itself. If there was ever a time for Martin and company to illustrate why they were hot preseason picks, the next few series will be it.
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