Which School Poses Biggest Threat to FSU’s In-State Supremacy?

Since Jimbo Fisher was promoted to head coach in 2010, Florida State has without a doubt been the class of the Sunshine State. Fisher has six 10-win seasons in seven years, four top-10 finishes, three ACC crowns, three major bowl victories and a national championship.

Against in-state competition, Fisher’s Seminoles are 17-1 with the lone blemish coming in the 2012 regular season finale against Florida. For schools throughout the state not named Florida State however, there is a lot of optimism moving forward.

We’ll look briefly at the six other FBS programs in Florida and ultimately decide which one poses the biggest threat to FSU’s domination of the Sunshine State.

The Non-Contenders

UCF, Florida Atlanta and Florida International aren’t contenders at the moment (and probably never will be) to unseat Florida State, but new coaches have brought optimism.

In the first year under head coach Scott Frost, UCF improved from 0-12 to a bowl appearance. The Knights were defeated by Arkansas State in the Cure Bowl, but made huge strides that they’ll look to build on. This is particularly true with some of the AAC’s top coaches like Matt Rhule, Tom Herman and Willie Taggart leaving the conference.

FAU and FIU both found big names to fill their coaching void. Lane Kiffin, new head coach at FAU, and Butch Davis, new head coach at FIU, have both won national championships as assistants, have both coached premier FBS programs and both have been head coaches in the NFL.

Florida Atlantic hasn’t had a winning season or participated in a bowl game since 2008. The Golden Panthers haven’t had any such success since 2011.

South Florida

With new head coach Charlie Strong replacing Willie Taggart, this is some optimism that the Bulls will continue to move along as a football program. Strong struggled as head coach at Texas, but previously had success at Louisville.

South Florida is coming off its best season in school-history with 11 wins and a top-20 national ranking. Even in the best year in USF history however, the Bulls were still beaten by 20 points at home by FSU at a point in the season where the Seminoles weren’t playing well. USF could continue to have success, but it will be a long time before it is playing at the level of FSU.

Florida

Third-year head coach Jim McElwain tends to be the butt of jokes from FSU fans, but in his first two seasons, there’s no denying that he has elevated the program. Florida has managed to win a maligned SEC East in each of his first two seasons and has put together a recruiting class that ranks in the top 10 after finishing 21st and 12th in each of his first two cycles.

While McElwain is known as an offensive mind, his early success has been largely thanks to solid defensive holdovers from predecessor Will Muschamp. McElwain will have his work cut out for him with a beefed up schedule in 2017 and the loss of a number of defensive starters.

Despite Florida’s improvement in McElwain’s first two seasons, the Gators have been handled by FSU. FSU has been outscored 58-15 and Florida has yet to score an offensive touchdown in the match-ups. Those two losses came against Florida State teams that didn’t live up to its potential.

Miami

Miami’s 4-0 start and top-10 national ranking to start Mark Richt’s first season as head coach turned out to be a fluke, but the Hurricanes did make strides in 2016. Miami finished with nine wins and in the top 25 for the first time since 2009. The Hurricanes also won their first bowl game in a decade.

An alum and former quarterback at Miami, Richt has done a better job than predecessor Al Golden at keeping a plethora of South Florida talent at home. Richt brought home the No. 13 recruiting class this past cycle and is off to a fast start in 2018, headlined by the recent addition of 5-star running back Lorenzo Lingard.

Richt has also expressed a desire to upgrade facilities in Coral Gables. He’s pledged $1 million of his own money to construct an indoor practice facility.

The Verdict

Not surprisingly, the race to catch Florida State is between the Seminoles’ two biggest rivals — Miami and Florida. While Florida is the only of the two to have beaten FSU under Fisher, the Hurricanes have come much closer in recent years and that was before the upgrade at head coach from Al Golden to Mark Richt, which is why they get the nod.

In each of the last three meetings against Miami, the Seminoles have been forced to rally in the second half, winning the last three by a combined 10 points. Over the last four years, FSU has defeated the Hurricanes by an average of 9.3 points — 37 total. Over that span, FSU has defeated Florida by an average of 19.5 points — 78 total.

There also seems to be the sense that Miami is ascending as a football program again. Florida could be as well, but much of McElwain’s success — as mentioned before — came with heavy contributions from talented Muschamp recruits on defense. McElwain will have a chance to disprove that theory over the next couple seasons.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson