Facing the likes of Chad Kelly, Lamar Jackson, Quinton Flowers, Mitch Trubisky, Brad Kaaya, and Deshaun Watson would give any defense fits. Florida State faced this reality head on in 2016, with five of the aforementioned quarterbacks coming in the first six games.

The results weren’t pretty. The Seminoles’ secondary was missing its best player for almost the entire season, and they were breaking in new starters like Tarvarus McFadden and A.J. Westbrook. While the rushing defense was decent, the pass defense was giving up nearly 10 yards per attempt. Teams were dicing up the defense through the air, and the Seminoles could not slow them down.

It is fair to say that the quarterbacks FSU faced are the big reason why it gave up so many yards and suffered the three losses that it did. Kelly, Trubisky, Kaaya, and Watson are all likely draft picks, Jackson won the Heisman Trophy, and Flowers was named the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. They weren’t just good quarterbacks — they were elite. Some are obviously more of running threats, but pretty much all of them rank in the top categories in passing.

Enter Wilton Speight.

For those who don’t know, Speight is the starting quarterback for the Michigan Wolverines, who the Seminoles will be playing in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Dec. 30. As a recruit, Speight was a 3-star, according to 247Sports Composite rating. He was ranked the 452nd best prospect overall, the 16th best in Virginia, and the 22nd best pocket passer in the nation.

The 2016 season was his first ever as a starter after redshirting in 2014 and playing backup in 2015. Given those conditions, Speight has performed well. He played 11 games this year, only missing the contest against Indiana due to a shoulder injury sustained near the end of the Nov. 12 loss at Iowa. His final stat line was a good 63 percent completion, 2,375 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He averaged 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt, with 293 total.

Style

Speight is pocket passer. He possesses a sturdy 6-6 and 243 pound frame along with an adequate arm. In terms of power, Speight clearly does have the ability to push the ball downfield, but his passes never seem too much zip on them. His throwing mechanics likely contribute to that.

He is a redshirt sophomore, so he still has time to clean them up, but for now it does detract from his passing and you don’t need to be an expert to see it. But more on that later. For now, just know that if Speight is going to beat Florida State, it’s going to be inside the pocket. This makes him more similar to past opponent Brad Kaaya than most other quarterbacks FSU has faced.

Where He Excels

Don’t let the huge frame deceive you — Speight is very good at evading pressure. He’s adept at realizing when his pocket is collapsing and moving to wherever there is space. Michigan’s offensive line isn’t exceptional according to S&P numbers, but its adjusted sack rate of 27th is notably higher than its other rankings. A fair portion of this ranking can be attributed to Speight and his awareness. It will be an interesting test for a Florida State defensive line that leads the nation at getting to the quarterback.

Accuracy on short and middling throws has been exceptional this year. According to Pro Football Focus, heading into the Ohio State game, Speight completed over 76 percent of throws 10 yards or less from the line of scrimmage. In addition, seven of his touchdown passes were on balls that traveled at least 10 yards through the air. Getting Speight into a rhythm is especially key. Against top pass defenses like UCF, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, he did not dip below 62 percent completion.

Speight generally does not make horrible mistakes either. There’s a bit of a caveat there that will get elaborated on below, but for the most part, Speight does not melt down when he throws an interception or fumbles. He’s confident and will hurt teams that assume he will shrink at the sight of adversity. He runs the offense well and does a good job distributing the ball to his receivers.

Where He Struggles

Speight has a lot to work on mechanically. He seems to perpetually short-arm his throws, never bringing his full arm into play. He also has a bad tendency to throw off his back foot, which adds to his struggles in deep passing: according to PFF, he completed only six out of 22 passes of more than 20 yards. There’s no doubt that he could improve on this aspect if he worked on the aforementioned problems with his game.

The absolute biggest issue with Speight is consistency. In most of Michigan’s games this year, he performed well and did not hurt his team with turnovers. But when he did make mistakes, they were bad ones.

Look no further than the Ohio State game to understand their impact. His first interception was a pick-6, he fumbled on the goal line, and his second interception led to a touchdown for the Buckeyes. That was a game which was tied 17-17 at the end of regulation. If Speight doesn’t make the terrible mistakes he does, is Michigan the one playing in the Orange Bowl?

Other lowlights include a fumble return for touchdown, and a late fourth quarter interception in an Iowa game that the Wolverines would go on to lose. In his defense, the last one was arguably 50-50 the receiver’s fault, but the point remains. If he can’t get comfortable, Michigan’s offense stutters.

How Has He Done Against Good Competition?

Above is a table comparing various notable quarterbacks that the FSU defense has faced this year. The table is examining how each quarterback did against a pass defense that is ranked in the top 25 of S&P ratings. Each one listed above played at least three games against opponents that fit this criteria. Speight faced the most with five (UCF, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State).

The good news for Florida State is that Speight is the second least proficient quarterback on the list when it comes to passing yards per game. The only player below him is Quinton Flowers, who only averaged just over 19 attempts per game against S&P top 25 pass defenses. Speight averaged over 32. He is also tied for the second lowest yards per attempt average, oddly enough with Mitch Trubisky. That is probably due to North Carolina deciding to pass 33 times against Virginia Tech…during Hurricane Matthew. Trubisky had 58 passing yards and two interceptions in that mind-boggling affair.

Speight also does not come out looking great when you consider that half of his eight passing touchdowns above came against UCF. Chad Kelly also holds that distinction with four of his tosses coming against FSU. However, that cuts both ways: two of Speight’s interceptions were in one game as well (Ohio State). Against the four other teams that qualified, he only had one interception and one fumble, compared to six passing touchdowns.

The point being? Speight is likely not going to have an impressive day against Florida State. That’s not so much touting FSU’s defense as it is realizing that Speight simply is not there yet as a quarterback. He also doesn’t threaten teams on the ground, which is a component of the quarterbacks that saw the most success against Florida State. Speight has a high ceiling, but for right now, he can’t shoulder the load too much.

Then again, he hasn’t really needed to. Michigan’s defense made sure of it.

Some of that misses the point however. If Florida State can’t force mistakes out of Speight, its chances of winning go down. The Wolverines’ defense is simply too good to expect a win without some offensive mishaps. The Seminoles certainly have the ability to do so — they’ve forced eight fumbles and 14 interceptions on the year. It will however, be a difficult task against a quarterback who has done well at keeping the ball in his own team’s hands.