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Hoops predictions

Forums The Doak Hoops predictions

This topic contains 12 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by  finance85 1 month, 2 weeks ago.

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  • #200827

    finance85
    Moderator

    FSU has now joined the basketball schools who say “wait until basketball season”. Football is a mess, and basketball has potential, so here we go.

    FSU is predicted to finish 6th in Men’s Basketball.

    13 OoC games – FSU should really only have upset potential in 3 of them – UF, UConn, and Purdue. One of the opponents is a tournament game and isn’t known yet.

    Let’s say FSU goes 11-2, because Lenny is the coach.

    In the ACC, @ Virginia, Miami (2), Duke, @ Pitt, @ BC, Clemson (2), GA Tech (2), @ Syracuse, Louisville, Wake (2), @ UNC, Notre Dame, NC State, VA Tech.

    I predict losses –
    UVA, UM, Duke, BC, Clemson, Syracuse, UNC, Notre Dame

    I predict wins –
    UM, Pitt, Clemson, GA Tech (2), Louisville, Wake (2), NC State, VA Tech

    That puts FSU at 21-10 & 10-8 going into the ACCT. 10-8 should be good enough for a first round bye. FSU goes 1-1 in the ACCT and gets a 5 seed in the NCAA Dance.

    FSU actually matches up well with Duke and Notre Dame, and plays both at home. I think FSU has a good chance at winning both of them. FSU could also drop a game or two to UM, VA Tech, or Clemson.

    I think 10-8 is most likely, followed by 9-9, and 11-7.

    #200882

    NoleSoup4U
    Participant

    They beat the brakes off of UF last night.

    #200893

    finance85
    Moderator

    FSU looked pretty good. They were playing loose, and playing pretty good defense.

    They still gave up too many offensive rebounds, and still committed too many turnovers.

    #201718

    finance85
    Moderator

    Villanova turned out to be the unknown tournament team, and FSU lost a game it should have won. It’s not a bad loss, with good wins over UF, UConn, and Purdue.

    8-1 OoC so far, with SE Missouri, North Florida, Saint Louis, and Winthrop left. Saint Louis and Winthrop should not be treated lightly. That said, FSU should be 12-1 heading into ACC play.

    I now think this team has a possibility of going 11-7 in ACC play, and possibly even 12-6 if Cofer comes back strong.

    Turnovers continue to be a problem, but that’s normal for a Hamilton coached team. Not acceptable, but normal.

    This is a very experienced team that will win a few games despite Lenny being the coach. This is Lenny’s best chance for a Final 4 appearance.

    #202182

    finance85
    Moderator

    FSU bettered my prediction by a game, finishing OoC at 12-1. Lost to defending national champ ‘Nova. ‘Nova hasn’t been great this year, but the loss isn’t considered a bad loss.

    Now comes a brutal January conference schedule.

    This team’s weakness is turnovers. I heard an analyst discussing the turnovers as if just a slight improvement will be enough. I disagree. FSU must value the basketball to excel in ACC play.

    Sticking with my ACC record projections, though I think some of individual wins and losses may be different. The bad news is FSU plays some of the worst teams on the road, where anything can happen.

    Miami, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Syracuse have not been as good as predicted so far this season. NC State has been better than expected.

    #202709

    finance85
    Moderator

    Halfway thru the ACC schedule – FSU sits at 5-4. Arguably FSU should be at 8-1. FSU should not have lost to BC and Pitt. FSU lost by 1 to Duke, leading by 2 with less than 3 seconds left after leading by 20 earlier in the game.

    FSU’s remaining schedule – Louisville, Wake, @ GT, @ Clemson, @ UNC, ND, NC State, VA Tech, @ Wake.

    FSU has won 4 in a row.

    FSU should beat Wake (2), GT, Clemson, ND. FSU should lose at UNC. I see Louisville, NC State, and VA Tech as tossups, but they are all at home, so FSU should win 2 of 3.

    That should put FSU at 12-6, with 11-7 being the best bet. If FSU can get to 12-6 they should be no worse than a 4 seed.

    They have an opportunity to beat everyone ahead of them in the ACC except Duke.

    #202970

    finance85
    Moderator

    Update to last set of predictions.

    FSU beat Wake, GT, Clemson, and Louisville. All predicted, with Louisville one of the tossups.

    FSU has now won 8 in a row in the ACC, a school record. Up next is @ UNC. UNC will be coming off a game with Duke. That game will influence the FSU game, but there’s no way to know how much. Best outcome for FSU is for the UNC – Duke game to be close. FSU can beat UNC, but it’s not likely.

    That leaves ND, VA Tech, NC State, and @ Wake. VA Tech is in a slide, but still loved by the national media. NC State is also in a slide.

    FSU should win all of them, with VA Tech the toughest game at this point, but it’s at the Tucker Center.

    So… FSU should go 4-1 and probably finish 4th in the ACC. FSU gets the tie breaker over Syracuse, and probably Louisville. FSU needs to beat VA Tech to assure a tie-breaker there.

    A 4-1 finish puts FSU at 25-6 and 13-5 heading into the ACCT. A 4 seed gets a double bye, but FSU will have to face whoever the hottest lower seed is. FSU should go at least 1-1 in the ACCT.

    If all this plays out, FSU goes from a 5 or 6 seed to a 4 seed. It will be tough to be a 3 seed, but it’s still possible. The Pitt and BC losses, and losing to Duke at the buzzer, really hurt, but there’s little difference in a 3 seed or 4 seed.

    #203296

    finance85
    Moderator

    So far my February 20th predictions are right on. Clinched a 4 seed in the ACCT. Have Wake on the road. Wake took Duke down to the buzzer at Duke, so they will be playing with some confidence at home. I hope FSU is focused because this will likely be Wake’s 2nd to last game of the season.

    FSU is 24-6 & 12-5. They have a chance to have their best ACC and overall records.

    FSU should beat Wake and go 13-5. Arguably FSU should be 15-2 right now. They should not have lost to BC, Pitt, and Duke. They’ve won 10 of 11 in the ACC. That’s pretty darn good.

    OK, projections for the rest of the year – Beat Wake to finish 25-6 & 13-5. FSU will likely play Va Tech again in the ACCT. Win that and they play UVA. I think FSU beats VA Tech because VA Tech will be playing 2 days in a row, and they have no depth. Beating UVA is possible, but not likely, so FSU should go 1-1 in the ACCT. If FSU can do that, they should be a 4 seed in the NCAAT. FSU still might be a 4 seed if they lose to VA Tech.

    If FSU can beat VA Tech and UVA, they will likely face the UNC / Duke winner. Barring a blowout loss, FSU probably gets a 3 seed in the NCAAT.

    If FSU can somehow win the ACCT, they get a 2 seed in the NCAAT.

    #203578

    finance85
    Moderator

    End of Season / ACCT review –

    The writers predicted FSU would finish 6th in the ACC. Result – 4th.

    I predicted FSU would lose 2 games in OoC. They only lost 1, to Villanova. They beat LSU and Purdue in the process.

    I predicted conference losses to UVA, UM, Duke, BC, Clemson, Syracuse, UNC, Notre Dame. FSU beat UM twice, and Clemson twice, and Syracuse and ND. Lost to Pitt though. I predicted 10-8, and it was 13-5.

    My ACCT prediction was playing and beating VA Tech, then losing to UVA. FSU beat VA Tech, and beat UVA.

    End result was FSU was 1 game better in OoC, 3 games better in the ACC, and 1 game better in the ACCT. FSU now sits at 27-7.

    #203580

    finance85
    Moderator

    FSU plays Vermont to open the NCAAT. They should win that game, and play the winner of Marquette v Murray State. Both of those teams are very dangerous. FSU should win if they take care of the ball and don’t allow a lot of offensive rebounds. If FSU can do that, they likely get Gonzaga again. FSU matches up well with Gonzaga.

    In a repeat of 2018, if FSU beats Gonzaga, they likely get Michigan. Did I mention a repeat of 2018?

    You heard it here first folks. Hopefully you will hear it again on TV this coming Sunday.

    #203754

    NoleSoup4U
    Participant

    I don’t think I’ve watched a game this season, which is why they’re probably doing so well.

    #203756

    finance85
    Moderator

    Soup, if that’s the case, please don’t start now.

    Ham is not a good bench coach at all. I have to give him credit for letting Stan Jones run the offense, and having the other assistants help manage the substitution rotation.

    This team has won a lot of games because of senior leadership. Ham does deserve credit for creating a deep bench, and developing bigs.

    #203927

    finance85
    Moderator

    In a final review, this was a very good team, mostly because of the chemistry, senior leadership, and a good mix of players. Ham proved to be a better than average coach this season, and there are only about a dozen coaches I’d rather have over the long haul. I doubt any of them would be interested in FSU though.

    Ultimately, turnovers caused the loss to Gonzaga. FSU needs some bigs, especially if Fi goes pro.

    All the seniors will be missed. I give credit to Ham for recruiting kids who have good character to go along with their hoops skills.

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