Your Thoughts Thursday: FSU Will Beat NC State By Multiple Scores

Florida State football is hoping to transfer some momentum into their matchup with the NC State Wolfpack this Saturday night. The Seminoles got a proverbial monkey off their back by defeating a Louisville Cardinals team that took the lead in the fourth quarter at one point. Now they have one of the most important games coming up, in terms of bowl chances. We polled our social media following about how they think the game will go.

Last week, we posed the same question about the Louisville contest. Turns out the fans nailed it, correctly predicting that FSU would beat the Cardinals by multiple scores. Sure, it probably wasn’t in the fashion that most assumed it would be, but it’s a mark in the win column. Here’s where the pulse of the fanbase is right now:

The Daily Nole Poll: Who will win Saturday’s contest between #FSU and NC State at Doak Campbell Stadium?

— The Daily Nole (@TheDailyNole) September 25, 2019

Nearly half of those polled think that Florida State will win another game by multiple scores. Another 39 percent think the Seminoles will pull out a close victory. It sure does look like the fanbase has regained some confidence.

Our Take

Bill Connelly’s rating system SP+ has this as a virtual coin flip, with FSU possessing a 51% win probability. That’s why this contest is so important for a potential bowl game–the Seminoles do not have enough games where they’re clear favorites. They need to win at least one of these toss-ups. A less-than-impressive NC State team in Doak Campbell Stadium is a prime opportunity to do just that.

We do not have too many worries about the FSU offense scoring points. They’ve had some rough outings at times, but that still involves a season low 24 points against a good defense. NC State is average to below average across the board, so expect the offense to hold up their end of the bargain, even with James Blackman likely sidelined due to injury. The Wolfpack gave up 44 points to a West Virginia team whose offense is nothing to write home about.

Once again, the defense will be the main concern. Certain players on that side of the ball have shown growth and legitimate progress over the past couple of games. Yet injuries to Josh Kaindoh and Jaiden Lars-Woodbey will sting, and the unit itself is still struggling to figure out its role. NC State still boasts a talented cache of running backs who do a good job keeping a defense on its heels. If they don’t find success through the air, they probably will on the ground.

We’ll once again go with the fans here, though we are also going to be on the conservative side of things again. FSU 38, NC State 31.