Whether or not revenge is on Florida State’s mind is anyone’s guess, but that’s what a lot of fans are thinking. The ninth-seeded Seminoles will face Xavier in the second round of the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year.
FSU was the No. 3 seed in Orlando last year when the Musketeers, a No. 11 seed, smashed the Seminoles, 91-66. With Xavier now the top seed in the West Region, Florida State will look to return to the favor.
The teams will meet on Sunday. Xavier is coming off a 103-82 win over Texas Southern while the Seminoles handled Missouri on Friday night, 67-54.
The Basics
The Xavier Musketeers went 28-5 overall in the regular season and 14-3 in the Big East conference. They advanced all the way to their conference tournament title game, where they lost in overtime to the Providence Friars.
The Musketeers are eighth overall in points per game with 84.8 and 239th overall in points allowed with 74.7 per game. While they were the weakest of the 1-seeds, Xavier still boasts a top 15 Ken Pomeroy ranking with a seventh ranked offense and 60th ranked defense.
Xavier Strengths
Offensive Juggernaut – The Musketeers’ bread and butter is their overall offensive execution. No matter what statistic or breakdown one looks at, Xavier comes out on top. There are simply no categories on offense where it has an exploitable weakness.
In addition to the Ken Pomeroy offensive rating, the Musketeers rank 19th in effective field goal percentage, 28th in assists per possession, 10th in total rebounding percentage, and ninth in offensive efficiency. They have three players who score above 10 points per game: Trevon Bluiett (19.6), J.P. Macura (12.7), and Kerem Kanter (10.8).
Free Throws – Heck, this is impressive enough that it deserves its own segment. Xavier is so efficient offensively that it even maximizes its free throw opportunities. The Musketeers shoot 78.5 percent from the charity stripe, which ranks eighth in the nation. In fact, it’s the highest of any remaining tournament team.
Xavier Weaknesses
No Defensive Disruption – If there’s one true weak spot for Xavier, it’s the lack of a disruptive defense. Xavier ranks a lowly 224th in steals per possession and 230th in block percentage. The Musketeers are simply not built to create opportunities with their defense.
Streaky Defense – This leads to a larger problem in general where Xavier can get burned pretty badly by its streakiness. When the game is going in its favor and it is dictating the tempo, Xavier’s offense is overwhelming. When its not, it can get hairy quickly. Losses against Arizona State (102 points) and Villanova (89, 95 points) exemplify how even a great team like Xavier can be forced to play catch-up if its defense gets hit early.
FSU Key to Victory
Hit its stride – Fans saw the Seminoles get into a near unbreakable rhythm in the first half and final five minutes against Missouri. That’s not a fluke. If Florida State can be aggressive on offense and keep Xavier on its heels, it has a genuine shot of pulling out the upset. Florida State does not have the defense for a grind-it-out type of victory, but it certainly has the offense for a shootout.
Xavier Key to Victory
Overwhelm the guards – Fans of small ball strategy love the Musketeers. Their offense runs through the wings, with the focus being on getting their guards open in whatever way they can. Florida State has been prone to defensive breakdowns at the top of the key when Terance Mann is not on the court. Now his status is in question and his groin is almost certainly not 100 percent. If Xavier’s guards can play to their usual skill level, the Seminoles will need a miraculous shooting performance to get into the Sweet 16.
Predictions
Lead Writer Clint Eiland: Xavier, 85-78
Florida State played an excellent game against Missouri on Friday night, doing everything that it needed to blow out the Tigers. This jolt of momentum will certainly help the mindset going into the game against Xavier, and the Seminoles will really give the Musketeers all they can handle. But Xavier has a much deeper team than Missouri, and the offense is markedly better. Florida State falls in a close one.
Editor Mike Ferguson: Xavier, 84-74
The good news for Florida State is this year’s second round match-up can’t possibly get worse than last year. Still, the Musketeers are a good offensive team and has the numbers to match the depth of FSU. The Seminoles will hang tough this time around, but the better team will emerge in the final five or six minutes.
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