West Region First Round Primer: (9) FSU vs. (8) Missouri

The NCAA Tournament has arrived and for a second consecutive year and a sixth time in 10 years, Florida State is a part of it. The Seminoles (20-11, 9-9 ACC) will be the No. 9 seed in the West Region and open things late Friday night in Nashville against eighth-seeded Missouri.

The Basics

The Missouri Tigers (20-12, 10-8 SEC) won 20 games in the regular season and proceeded to lose in the first round of the SEC Tournament to Georgia. They made one of the biggest turnarounds in college basketball this year after going just 8-24 last season. A large part of that is due to head coach Cuonzo Martin and his management style. Notable victories for Mizzou include wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Arkansas (all tournament teams). Ken Pomeroy has the Tiger offense ranked 53rd and the defense ranked 47th.

Interesting to note is that the Tigers were originally supposed to have 5-star forward and future lottery pick Michael Porter Jr. this season. He got injured just one game into the regular season and was out for the entire year after having back surgery. The school announced less than two weeks ago that he had recovered fully and would be available for the SEC Tournament and beyond. He is still slated to play against the Seminoles.

Mizzou Strengths

Size – The Tigers match up very well with the Seminoles when it comes to overall height, which Florida State has typically coveted in the past couple of years. Missouri has four players that are 6-foot-10 or taller, giving it ample size to contend with the likes of Ike Obiagu, Mfiondu Kabengele, and Phil Cofer. Florida State’s most recent tournament win against Florida Gulf Coast last year was spurred on by its ability to dominate in the post — that’s going to be a lot tougher this time around. The Tigers’ two main post players, Jeremiah Tilmon and Jontay Porter, average more than eight points and one block per game.

Rebounding – Missouri’s aforementioned size is not just for show. The Tigers enter the tournament ranked 45th in total rebounding percentage, which comes from a very balanced effort on the boards. Whereas many teams unevenly focus on one side of rebounding, the Tigers are 104th in offensive rebounding percentage and 110th in defensive rebounding percentage.

3-point shooting – Seminole fans familiar with the team this season just cringed reading those three (two?) words. Even sub-par shooting teams apparently get it together in time for Florida State, who allow one of the higher marks in the nation. Missouri will once again put this to the test with its 39 percent 3-point shooting (good for 25th in the nation). Take note of Kassius Robertson (42.5 percent) and Jontay Porter (37.7 percent) in this regard.

Mizzou Weaknesses

Turnovers – The true Achilles heel of the Missouri offense lies in its ball security. The Tigers have one of the worst turnovers per possession rates in the nation, finishing at a putrid 305th in the rankings. Florida State is fairly mediocre at forcing turnovers itself, but its transition offense is very strong when the Seminoles do provoke them. The Seminoles will need to take advantage of the opportunities that come their way.

Suspension – Shortly after Missouri officially made the tournament, head coach Cuonzo Martin announced that senior forward Jordan Barnett was suspended for the Florida State game due to a driving while intoxicated arrest on March 10. Barnett played the second most minutes of anyone on the team and averaged over 13 points and six rebounds per game. He’s a crucial part of the squad, who posed interesting match-up questions against the Seminoles. Now, Florida State doesn’t have to worry about him.

Depth – Barnett’s suspension is the icing on top of the depth issues that currently plague the Tigers. Going into Friday night’s game, they have just eight scholarship players available, and one of them (Michael Porter Jr.) wasn’t even playing most of the season. In the end, it might not matter how well they’re shooting or how strong their defense performs: if Florida State can keep up the pace, it’ll wear out Missouri for a victory.

FSU Key to Victory

Force turnovers – An active defense can play right into Florida State’s strengths and hit on two of the Missouri weaknesses. In addition to the obvious scoring opportunities that a turnover presents, fast breaks and up-tempo offenses will tire out a team that doesn’t have many bench options. The Seminoles can basically throw haymakers without any chances of a response if they can force turnovers early and often.

Mizzou Key to Victory

Hit 3-point shots – One way to stay ahead of Florida State is to get it in an offensive shootout. It won’t matter how many points off turnovers the Seminoles are getting if you can just come right back down and make up for it with the 3-ball. Numerous times, we have seen Florida State get thrown off its game by an opponent, who can’t stop hitting 3-point shots, and Missouri is more than capable of doing just that.

Predictions

Lead Writer Clint Eiland: Missouri, 80-76

This game truly is a coin flip type of match-up. Even Vegas seems to think so, as the Seminoles are just 1.5-point favorites as of Wednesday. Too many times we have seen Florida State play well enough to win, but then its 3-point defense lets the Seminoles down and all of the sudden, it’s a tight contest. Yes, a lot of it is luck, but there’s an aspect that you can prepare for. Missouri’s shooters are consistent and now they have a true wild card in Michael Porter Jr. playing. Offensively, Florida State will be fine. The Tigers will deny a lot against the post players, but FSU can still make them pay with the tried and true method of attacking the rim. Defensively, the Seminoles will need to buckle down and try to stop a versatile Missouri attack. Barnett’s suspension helps a lot in that regard, but it’s become a losing venture to bet against a team hitting the deep shots against the Seminoles.

Editor Mike Ferguson: FSU, 78-75

Despite all the criticism he’s received of late from the FSU fan base, head coach Leonard Hamilton has advanced in the NCAA Tournament in each of his last three trips. He’s also 2-1 as the lower seed. Missouri can present match-up issues and Michael Porter’s return to the lineup is a real wild card, but not having Jordan Barnett will be the difference on Friday night.