The Daily Nole

FSU Football Recruiting: Final Scenarios Approaching Signing Day

Mike Olivella/FSU athletics

National Signing Day is less than two weeks out, and Florida State finds itself right in the thick of things. Previous head coach Jimbo Fisher left the Seminoles in a recruiting hole that Willie Taggart is attempting to hoist them out of. He’s had early signs of doing just that by regrouping the class and putting them in the top 20, according to the 247Sports Composite rankings. Just over a month ago, they were not even in the top 50.

That also means that Feb. 7 will bring added importance. Typically, FSU has almost its whole class locked up by now and is awaiting news on the final pieces. Clearly this is not the case for 2018.

Right now, the Seminoles have just 14 commitments, and are looking to add up to six to eight more to finish the class. It’s not an ideal situation, but it’s the one they find themselves in after an unexpected coaching change.

If one were to put out the best case scenario for how the class finishes, it would look something like this:

Dream Finish

  • 4-star WR Warren Thompson
  • 4-star ATH/WR Tre’Shaun Harrison
  • 4-star QB James Foster
  • 4-star DE Malcolm Lamar
  • 4-star WR Josh Moore
  • 4-star DE/OLB Caleb Tannor OR 3-star DE John Mincey

Let’s be 100 percent clear about this above outcome: it is the absolute dream scenario for the upcoming National Signing Day. Getting all six commitments would be an absolutely stunning finish for Taggart and staff. It would mean that they essentially came out of nowhere for at least four of them and locked down those already interested.

Putting these into the class calculator produces a 267.07 final rating with Tannor or a 266.28 rating with Mincey. Either would put them at eighth in the nation for team rankings — above Clemson and Notre Dame.

Of course, those two programs may still have players to add. Safe to say that the dream scenario has a very low chance of happening.

Transition classes are almost never that good, and even if they were, the chances that they succeed down the road are lower than usual. The focus is typically on gathering depth and taking chances with prospects who are interested in your school despite the change. If you can grab some surprise players, then do so.

Instead, fans should evaluate a first-year signing day based on how the class fills team needs. Even if the players themselves typically aren’t takes for the program in regular years, they are still better options than walk-ons. If they are usually takes, that’s even better.

Florida State has some crucial needs in the 2018 cycle. If it wants a strong close, it’ll need to fulfill at least one of the scenarios laid out below.

Sign At Least Two Wide Receivers

Florida State’s problems at the wide receiver position have been well publicized for over a year. In addition to general underperformance, the Seminoles now face a numbers problem. They have just five confirmed returning scholarship receivers and one current commit with D’Marcus Adams. Of those returning, only Nyqwan Murray can be regarded as a veteran. Given what fans know about Murray’s attitude issues and inconsistency, that’s a scary prospect.

It also means that the offense is just a couple injuries away from severely limiting its capabilities. Taggart needs to obtain a commitment from two of Warren Thompson, Tre’Shaun Harrison, Josh Moore, or Antoine Green. The first couple of names are the most realistic, with the next two less so. Each could realistically see the field in their true freshman seasons, considering the skill sets they would bring to the position.

Only grabbing one would be a disappointment; grabbing none would be a complete disaster.

Get At Least One Defensive End

Less attention has been given to Florida State’s defensive ends situation despite a similar numbers crunch. Granted, the defensive line is a more fluid group that can switch around players from inside to outside and vice versa. But in terms of pure defensive ends, Florida State only has four on the roster.

Brian Burns and Josh Kaindoh are great starters. The Seminoles still need depth behind them in order to maximize defensive efficiency. Florida State has a few routes to go here, with the main one being Malcolm Lamar. He’ll need to lose weight if he ever wants to contribute at the position, but that’s certainly an option if he comes.

A lower rated but still notable recruit is John Mincey. Mincey is a former Arkansas commit whose offer sheet does not match his ranking. Right now he is getting serious looks from schools like Tennessee, South Carolina, and Auburn, despite supposedly not even being a top 30 player at his position. He’s slated to officially visit FSU on Feb. 2.

A more surprising get would be defensive end/outside linebacker Caleb Tannor. FSU was very late to the show with his recruitment, but he’s interested enough that he’s scheduled to visit on Feb. 2 as well. Getting him in the class is a long shot, but worth mentioning.

Sign James Foster

Willie Taggart has made 4-star quarterback James Foster one of his top priorities for the 2018 class. Foster had interest in Florida State before the hire, and the current staff is intent on stoking that interest. The other two contenders for his commitment are Alabama and LSU. The Crimson Tide are always near the top of the list for elite quarterback recruits, and will likely be manned by Tua Tagovailoa for the next couple of years.

LSU’s competition is a bit more open, but it has two 4-star quarterbacks from the previous class already in the system. Florida State can offer a happy medium between the two schools and an offensive system that fits Foster’s abilities.

Why would signing Foster be such a noteworthy accomplishment?

Because the 2019 quarterback class is shaping up to be the worst one in recent memory. For perspective, here’s a comparison with this year’s crop. In the 2018 composite ratings for quarterbacks, the first one outside the top 100 overall players is Adrian Martinez at No. 12 at his position. In the 2019 composite rankings, the first one outside the top 100 is Roschon Johnson at No. 4 at his position.

That’s not set in stone of course. There will certainly be prospects who shoot up in the rankings and those who tumble as the year goes by. If you’re Willie Taggart however, do you want to take that risk and hope that there’s a championship-caliber quarterback in a weak looking class? You might be better off getting a good prospect in this one and potentially holding off until 2020.

Listen to The Weekly Nole Podcast for a bit more information on Foster and why his recruitment could matter.

Close On a Surprise Recruit

Surprise recruit is defined as someone who is not favored to sign with FSU. Right now that’s a group that includes Josh Moore, Caleb Tannor, Andrew Chatfield, and Jamarcus Chatman. It could also involve plenty of other names (hence the surprise) but those are the ones who appear to have Florida State as a finalist.

Xavier Peters, a 4-star linebacker, flipped to Florida State on Sunday. Transition classes are a perfect time to take a risk on somebody who has questions surrounding grades. If Peters gets it cleared up, he could get immediate playing time. Taggart has already fulfilled one scenario in this list.

Of all the scenarios on this list, the above is probably the least “necessary” but it could certainly help perception. Taggart being able to pull a highly-rated recruit at the last minute would bring extra momentum in 2019, where Florida State plans to take a larger class.

If one were to speculate about which of the scenarios was most likely, it would probably be the first two. Florida State is in good position with Warren Thompson and Tre’Shaun Harrison, as well as Malcolm Lamar — although Florida has made a strong push for the 4-star defensive end. Just those three committing would prove satisfactory considering the circumstances. If the third came true and James Foster joins, that would be a great finish.

Again, not everything written here has to come true. In order to feel good about the class however, two of them will need to transpire. If for no other reason than to reassure Florida State fans before the 2018 season that Taggart can live up to the shoes required of him to fill. It won’t be a death sentence if he can’t pull these off, but it won’t be encouraging.

There’s still no need to be stressing over the decisions of high school students. 2019 will be the first full class that one can judge the staff on. How 2018 finishes will be interesting, but ultimately might not indicate much in the near future.

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