The State of FSU Football Post-2017

It’s funny to look back on the 2016 edition of this piece and see what the assumptions were before 2017 had started. A few notable ones include:

• Jimbo Fisher has a high floor as a coach.
• Jimbo Fisher will still be the coach for more than a couple years.
• Florida State’s offense will always be a top unit.

Injuries quite obviously played a role in basically all three of those getting disproven. There’s no use in trying to project them, and if you had told us before the season that Deondre Francois was out, we would’ve given a much different outlook.

Yet Francois’ injury still does not completely explain away the 6-6 regular season that fans just witnessed. It took everyone by surprise and you will find nobody credible predicting it from before the season.

So what now? Florida State has a brand new head coach, almost completely new staff, and substantially different roster. If this was as good as it gets with players like Derwin James and Josh Sweat, could 2018 be even worse?

The difficulty with this present article is trying to guess how smoothly (if at all) the transition to a new offense and defense will be. Historic examples from similar caliber programs are mixed. On one hand, you have teams like 2015 Michigan who notched 10 wins in the first year of Jim Harbaugh.

On the other hand, examples like 2007 Alabama going 7-6 under Nick Saban prove that not all transitions are created equal. There don’t appear to be many factors that could provide guidance in this respect. It simply depends on the coach and how much of a learning curve their system requires.

New head coach Willie Taggart’s history at other programs falls into the “unclear” category. The Western Kentucky and South Florida teams he took over at the Group of 5 level experienced steep declines before his arrival that FSU simply has not witnessed.

The only comparable situation is with Oregon, where he turned a 4-8 team into a 7-5 team. That’s a definite improvement, but even Oregon did not have the talent on its roster that FSU currently enjoys.

The point being that this article might be funny to look back on in a year or two.

We can still establish some incontrovertible facts. The first is that FSU has enough talent to jump right back into the national spotlight.

Amidst the gloom of a 7-6 year, FSU fans saw definite bright spots with freshman players like Cam Akers, Josh Kaindoh, Stanford Samuels III, and more. The 247Sports composite team rankings have no FSU class since 2013 being ranked below 11th. Sometimes coaches unevenly recruit towards one side of the ball, like Brady Hoke and Will Muschamp.

That isn’t the case for the Seminoles. From 2015-17, they brought in 19 offensive blue chips and 23 defensive blue chips. Taggart’s new defensive coordinator, Harlon Barnett, will actually have a little more to work with than Taggart. The talent is there for a 10-plus win season in 2018.

Then again, the talent was there for a national championship this year.

While it might be tempting to assume another down year for the FSU offense, it needs to be factored in that there will be two viable options at quarterback. Both Deondre Francois and James Blackman have a year of starting experience under their belt. Either one will have a top running back to help them out and returning receivers in Nyqwan Murray, Keith Gavin and D.J. Matthews.

The offensive line figures to retain much of its experience as well — starters at left tackle (Josh Ball), left guard (Landon Dickerson/Derrick Kelly), center (Alec Eberle), and right guard (Cole Minshew) will all be coming back. They might not be an elite offensive unit just yet, but it figures that they will not be finishing at 87th overall in the S&P ratings.

Taggart is currently building a staff capable of recruiting against the top programs in the nation. With more than half of the positions filled, Taggart already has the 2018 class sitting just outside the top 25. Even more impressive? The class is barely half full.

Multiple blue-chip prospects leaning towards Florida State remain unsigned. If this is a sign of things to come, Florida State is going to see recruiting success that even the previous regime was unable to accomplish.

Hiring Harlon Barnett from Michigan State was the exact type of hire that Taggart needed for the program. It was likely the second biggest position behind the head-coaching hire. One of the glaring questions from Taggart’s past was the decline of his USF defense, which provoked concerns about whether or not he could choose a great defensive coach after Jim Leavitt was retained by Oregon for $1.7 million per year.

With the Barnett hire, he nabbed a respected coach with a proven track record of success. Barnett might not have a Mickey Andrews level of commitment to Florida State, but he will certainly be at the school for long enough to implement his system and fully display why he’s regarded as an up-and-comer.

If he was able to help build top 25 defenses at Michigan State, imagine what he will be able to do with athletes of Florida State’s caliber. Much like his new head coach, Barnett has a lot of potential.

If it wasn’t clear when he was hired, let us repeat: Unless the bottom falls out of the program, Taggart has at least three years to prove himself. Even a season like 2017 would be acceptable in 2018 as long as defeats like 35-3 against Boston College don’t occur. Florida State is not keen on coaching searches, and the Taggart situation was a bit on the lucky side when it comes to the carousel, especially considering all the drama and issues with the previous coaching departure.

Sprinting right back towards national championship contention is probably too high of an expectation in 2018. There is too much of an overhaul to think that Taggart can immediately rectify the problems left behind. A 10-win season is a more realistic goal to strive for, and fans should keep that in mind when the Seminoles struggle to maintain consistency over the whole season.

2019 is when fans should expect the Florida State of old to return. If Taggart is the right guy for the job, it’ll become very apparent very soon.