FSU Wasn’t the Same Team at the End of the Season

It’s been nearly a week since Florida State’s best basketball season in five years came to a close as the Seminoles were handled by Xavier in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last Saturday, 91-66.

Though it was a bitter way to end the season, the Seminoles still made huge strides with a school-record 24 regular season wins and equaling the school’s highest seeding ever in the ACC and NCAA Tournament. Watching FSU lose to a No. 11 seed by 25 points in a state where it hadn’t lost all season however, has made some wonder if the Seminoles were deserving of their No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Some have argued that NCAA Tournament seeding should be more related to how the team is playing at the moment than its total body of work. The total resume’ for Florida State certainly suggests that it was worthy of a No. 3 seed, but if you compare FSU’s final 15 games to its first 20, there’s no denying that it wasn’t the same team:

A look at the chart shows that down the stretch, there was a significant drop-off in record and offensive production. One could assume that was due to a beefed up schedule down the stretch, but that isn’t necessarily true. The final 15 games came after a stretch that many had dubbed “the gauntlet” where FSU played six straight games against ranked ACC opponents.

FSU also played 19 games against teams that made the NCAA Tournament this season. 11 of them came in the first 20 games and eight came in the final 15.

The case could be made that FSU’s numbers were inflated by performances early on against the likes of Nicholls and Southern Mississippi. A deeper look however, shows that FSU also eclipsed the 100-point mark and shot ridiculously high percentages from the field in February showdowns with Clemson and Boston College that fall in the latter column.

None of this is to knock what the Seminoles accomplished as a whole or how they played down the stretch, but the FSU that looked like a nationally elite program in mid-January wasn’t the same team that entered the NCAA Tournament. The team that played its games in February and March wasn’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, but it wasn’t playing at the level it did earlier in the season.

There are a number of reasons one may inference as to why. The biggest is probably that teams figured FSU out. As the season went on, more teams switched to zone defenses, which forced FSU to rely more on jump shots and less on their strengths of length and athleticism.

This isn’t to make excuses for why FSU lost to Xavier, but simply one reason. Another reason for FSU’s late season swoon could be that it played more games away from home.

In Florida State’s first 20 games this season, it played just two true road games and only five times out of the state of Florida. Over the last 15 games, the Seminoles played seven true road games and eight games outside the Sunshine State.

In hindsight, getting blown out by Xavier is hardly the embarrassment some would make it seem. With the win over FSU, Xavier advanced to the Sweet 16 for a sixth time in 10 years. On Thursday, the Musketeers closed the game on a 12-2 run to defeat second-seeded Arizona and advance to the Elite Eight.

Despite the disappointing finish, the 2016-17 had more highlights than lowlights and was among the most productive in FSU basketball history. Though the Seminoles will likely lose their three best players, the program is in better shape than it was at the start of the season.

While it didn’t end the way fans had hoped, seasons like this past one are special at a place like Florida State. Although FSU will likely take a step back next season, there is optimism that fans won’t have to wait five more years to see the Seminoles in the dance.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson