Historical Trends: Orange Bowl Outcomes Carry Over for FSU

Optimism is high for Florida State heading into 2017 and much of that has to do with the way the Seminoles finished this past season. FSU closed the year with five straight victories to finish ranked eighth nationally and win at least 10 games for a fifth straight year.

The season for FSU was capped with a thrilling 33-32 Orange Bowl victory over a Michigan team that was perhaps a missed field goal or bad overtime spot away from a berth in the College Football Playoff. The win over the Wolverines in Miami showed how far FSU had come after a 5-3 start that included a 43-point loss at Louisville and a home loss to a North Carolina squad that went on to lose five games. But does that win mean something bigger is in store?

Many like to debate how much non-championship bowl games actually mean. For victors, they serve as nice consolations prizes to a winning season (at least before 5-7 teams start qualifying) and create positive momentum heading into the next season. How much or perhaps more appropriately, how little bearing that they have on the following season is hard to say.

For Florida State however, Orange Bowls seem (most likely coincidentally) to be a good indicator on whether or not the team will improve the following season. FSU has appeared in the Orange Bowl on 10 occasions which is more than in any other bowl. In those games, FSU has gone an even 5-5.

When FSU wins the Orange Bowl, it almost always does better the following season. When it loses, it almost always does worse.

Below is a list of all five of Florida State’s victories. The last two columns show the Seminoles’ record and final AP ranking the following season. Blue represents improvement while yellow represents regression.

The one year where Florida State regressed after winning the Orange Bowl was 1994, but to avoid regressing, it would have had to repeat as national champions. In all, the worst FSU has ever finished after winning the Orange Bowl is fourth nationally. Two of Florida State’s three national titles came after winning the Orange Bowl the year prior.

Here’s a look at the five Orange Bowl losses for FSU:

The only area of improvement on this chart came in terms of FSU’s final ranking in 1980 as the Seminoles finished one spot higher than the year before at fifth. Overall however, FSU had a worse record than the year before, but both defeats came by a single point and in South Florida at the hand of Miami and then Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.

In other cases, Orange Bowl losses brought very forgettable following seasons. 1981, following the 18-17 loss to Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, was the last year in which the Seminoles failed to make a bowl game. 2001 was the season where FSU’s string of 14 straight top-5 finishes came to an end. After nearly upsetting Penn State in the Orange Bowl to conclude 2005, the Seminoles lost six games in 2006 — their most in 30 years.

How much any of this means is probably minimal, but the numbers are interesting to observe. Rendering them completely meaningless however, would probably be unwise as well.

Florida State’s 31-10 victory over Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl to conclude 2012 isn’t a victory that will go down in FSU lore, but it did give the Seminoles their first major bowl victory in 13 years and first top-10 finish in nine.

Following the game, head coach Jimbo Fisher set that win would set the standard for FSU football moving forward and the team went on to win its next 27 games, a national championship and two ACC titles. If the Seminoles put together a special year in 2017, last month’s thrilling victory over the Wolverines could be viewed in similar fashion.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson