FSU Football: Can Francois Avoid a Sophomore Slump?

After a season that resulted in 10 wins, a top-10 finish and ACC Rookie of the Year honors, big things will be expected out of Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois as a redshirt sophomore in 2017.

In 13 starts during the 2016 season, Francois finished with 3,350 yards passing and 25 total touchdowns. Anticipation, accuracy and pocket presence are all areas where Francois can stand to improve and should, but FSU quarterbacks to start as redshirt freshmen have traditionally taken a step back as sophomores.

Here are the numbers:

Chris Rix:

Drew Weatherford:

Jameis Winston:

As redshirt sophomores, both Chris Rix and Drew Weatherford briefly lost their starting jobs. Rix was replaced midseason by Adrian McPherson, but regained the job after McPherson was dismissed from the program. In 2006, Weatherford and fellow redshirt sophomore Xavier Lee played musical quarterbacks for the final five weeks of the regular season.

Both saw production drop in virtually every area. Weatherford did improve slightly as a sophomore in touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Even Jameis Winston, who won the Heisman Trophy in 2013 and is considered by many as a once-in-a-generation type quarterback, saw a significant drop-off as a redshirt sophomore. Winston still went on to lead Florida State to an undefeated regular season and appearance in the College Football Playoff before going on to be selected first overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, but the drop-off from 2013 to 2014 was significant.

There are a varying number of factors for the drops from year No. 1 to year No. 2, including personnel changes around the quarterbacks. Another factor is obviously opposing teams having a full year of film to observe.

Francois certainly seems to be a motivated young man, who works hard, prepares well and is mentally tough. After the hits he took in 2016, there is no question that he’s physically tough as well.

Improving for the Orlando native however, isn’t a given as FSU will be losing its leading rusher, receiver and best offensive lineman early to the NFL Draft. That rusher, Dalvin Cook, happens to be the best in school-history and that lineman, Roderick Johnson, is a 2-time winner of the Jacobs Blocking Trophy annually given to the ACC’s top offensive lineman.

Unlike Rix in 2002 or Weatherford in 2006, Francois isn’t likely to relinquish his starting spot in 2017 even if he struggles. FSU simply doesn’t have much competition behind him.

With Cook off to the NFL, it’s possible that the Seminoles will rely more on Francois in 2017, but the supporting cast should still be pretty good. FSU has seven scholarship running backs hoping to replace Cook’s production, including experienced Jacques Patrick and two of the nation’s top 40 overall prospects for 2017*.

It’s also worth noting that over the final six games of the 2016 season, Nyqwan Murray was more productive than leading receiver Travis Rudolph, who declared for the draft last week. Though FSU loses Johnson and Kareem Are, it will return seven players who made at least one start along the offensive line.

If Francois does experience a dip in production in 2017, that doesn’t necessarily mean Florida State will be worse as a team. In FSU’s three losses this past season, the team still managed to average nearly 30 points per game, scoring at least 34 points in two of the losses. With a defense that replaces just two starters, Francois and the FSU offense as a whole could be asked to do less.

When it comes to improving as a sophomore however, there is reason to believe that Francois could. As mentioned before, Francois had a solid freshman campaign despite struggling noticeably with anticipation, pocket awareness and accuracy.

Improving in those areas could help Francois offset attrition around him. Where past freshmen like Rix and Weatherford took steps back as sophomores, the argument could be made that neither had the potential of Francois. After the greatest passing season in FSU history and winning the Heisman Trophy in 2013, the only direction Winston had to go was down.

More than any other position, a quarterback’s success is largely measured to that of his team. With that said, Francois’ biggest goal for 2017 won’t be found in the box score, but reflected by whether or not he can end his sophomore campaign in the place where it will start — Atlanta.

*-Rankings according to 247Sports Composite rankings

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson