The Daily Nole

Is FSU Hoops a Contender to Win it All? History Says No

Mike Olivella/FSU athletics

You’d be hard-pressed to find a basketball team throughout the country that is currently hotter than Florida State. The Seminoles made a big statement on Tuesday night with an 88-72 win over No. 7 Duke.

FSU now sits at 16-1 — the best 17-game start in school-history — and 4-0 in ACC play for the first time ever. Coming into the season, most would have probably been happy if the Seminoles were able to snap its 4-year NCAA Tournament drought. After the best start in school-history, fans are thinking ACC title, Final Four and maybe even national championship.

The question before us: Are those hopes realistic?

On the surface, they don’t seem to be that far-fetched. It’s hard to find a team with more size, depth and athleticism than Florida State. Dwayne Bacon is a legitimate superstar while fellow guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes is having the most efficient season of his career. FSU has plenty of size while others like sophomore Terance Mann and freshmen Jonathan Isaac and Trent Forrest have the ability to quietly fill up the box score.

As good as the Seminoles are however, history suggests that this probably won’t be their year. Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams (and later 65, then 68) in 1986, only four teams that went on to win the national championship missed the NCAA Tournament (1985-86 Louisville, 2002-03 Syracuse, 2010-11 and 2013-14 Connecticut) the season before.

Of those four, none had an NCAA Tournament hiatus longer than one year and in Louisville’s case, the NCAA Tournament field was 53 teams the year before. FSU has missed the NCAA Tournament in each of the last four seasons.

Traditionally, it’s established powers that ultimately win the national championship. Since the field expanded in 1986, the only team to win the national championship in its first trip to the Final Four was Connecticut during the 1998-99 season. The Huskies however, had reached at least the Sweet 16 in six of the previous nine seasons.

Of the last 31 teams to claim a national championship, only two others (1988-89 Michigan, 1994-95 UCLA) were more than seven years removed from their last Final Four appearance. 23 of the 31 teams were five years or less removed from its previous Final Four appearance. 17 of them were removed by three years or less. FSU hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1972.

Eventually, these trends will be bucked and for FSU fans, why not the Seminoles and why not now? Though you can make the case that Florida State is good enough to win the whole thing, the odds are still against it. Even if FSU isn’t the last team standing, what it could do this season is continue to sow the seeds of basketball success and lay a foundation for future Seminole teams to accomplish some of the things mentioned above.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson

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