NCAA 14 Orange Bowl Predictions

Video games have long been a staple of fans looking to create their own worlds and live out their fantasies when it comes to college football. Want Florida State to win the national championship five years in a row? You can do that.

Wish to change the FSU offense to the wishbone and unveil dominance never before seen in the college football landscape? Go right ahead. The EA Sports NCAA Football games are the prime example of this, and they continue to be played by thousands across the nation.

Only problem? NCAA 14 (released in 2013) was the last iteration that EA ever developed, as a pending case involving player likeness/compensation halted any future plans with the series. Yet not all hope was lost. A vibrant online community in OperationSports continues to provide downloadable rosters each season, allowing users to update the teams and keep the in-game product current.

Part of the fun with these games is simulating match-ups both real and imaginary. For this article, I went into NCAA 14 and simulated the 2016 Capital One Orange Bowl between FSU and Michigan. The original idea was formulated in the summer, when I wanted to simulate the 2016 season in its entirety and transcribe the results. Unfortunately, it proved impossible due to various reasons, so the concept was pushed back to whatever potential bowl game the Seminoles found themselves in.

Without getting slogged down in the details, here’s how the game was set up: I went to the Sports Reference page of each team and took note of all the players listed as “Out”. I went to the rosters and set all these players stats to 0, and auto-reordered the depth chart. I went to the “Play Now” option and set up the game as accurate as possible.

So that meant selecting the Orange Bowl as the stadium, 8 p.m. as the time, and the weather as 70 degrees with clear skies. I simulated the game 10 times. Each time, I recorded up to the top four performers in the passing, rushing, receiving, and defensive categories. In addition, I kept track of certain key players throughout the games.

With that being said, here is what NCAA 14 believes will occur in the Orange Bowl. Below are the averages of various numbers like overall score, tackles, passing yards, rushing yards, etc. All the decimals have been rounded up or down, depending on if they were at or over the .5 mark.

Score

FSU 36, Michigan 32

It is an unusually high-scoring affair, especially considering the two defenses and their performances towards the end of the year. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that two of the simulations went into four and three overtimes, respectively. Even removing those, the final score still comes out in favor of FSU by way of 32-28. Either result would be unexpected offensive explosions, especially if FSU scores more than 30 on Michigan.

Passing

Deondre Francois: 288 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns

Wilton Speight: 344 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception

Francois has a good day against a stout Wolverines’ defense, but Speight has an exceptional day against FSU. The good news for the Seminoles is that they force a rare turnover from Speight, which is a factor we identified in our overview of him as a quarterback.

Rushing

Dalvin Cook: 102 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns, 5.4 yards per carry

De’Veon Smith: 70 yards, 1 touchdown, 3.8 yards per carry

Florida State’s run defense is no fluke, as it was able to contain Smith and force Speight to beat it through the air. Cook finally has a good bowl game and rushes for over 100 yards and two touchdowns in his hometown.

Receiving

Travis Rudolph: 97 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Nyqwan Murray: 55 receiving yards

Kermit Whitfield: 30 receiving yards

Amara Darboh: 70 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Jehu Chesson: 86 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Jake Butt: 43 receiving yards

Turns out that the improvement in pass defense from FSU was short-lived. Both Darboh and Chesson have big games against the Seminoles’ secondary, each gathering at least 70 receiving yards and a score. The star receiver however is Travis Rudolph, who comes the closest to triple digit receiving yards.

Some may be surprised to see that Auden Tate wasn’t listed here, but refer back to the game setup for why this is. The most yards Tate ever got in any of the simulations was 85. But that was a clear outlier, as he wasn’t able to get more than 20 for the rest of the iterations.

Defensive

Matthew Thomas: 9 tackles, 1 interception

Josh Sweat: 4 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack

DeMarcus Walker: 4 tackles, 1 sack

Ben Gedeon: 6 tackles

Mike McCray: 6 tackles, 1 tackle for loss

Chris Wormley: 6 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack

Matthew Thomas shows out for his hometown apparently, getting near double digit tackles and one interception. Josh Sweat and DeMarcus Walker team up for a good game even if the latter seems a bit underwhelming. On the other team, both of Michigan’s linebackers have decent games, but defensive end Chris Wormley has arguably the best defensive performance of the game. NCAA 14 had wildly different defensive results in each of the simulations, which explains why many of these stat lines aren’t all that impressive or noteworthy.

Overall, I’d have to say that I don’t put all the much value in these simulations. NCAA 14, like all of the NCAA games, has many quirks that produce…inaccurate results. For instance, it’s not surprising that linebackers dominate the notable stats here, as anyone who has played NCAA 14 can attest to the otherworldly nature of linebackers in the game.

That being said, it is still an interesting look at a game that is sure to intrigue much of the college football world. There’s not much left to do when it comes to talking about the Orange Bowl. Quite simply, it’s time to play the game.