Who: No. 11 Florida State Seminoles (9-3) vs. No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (10-2)
What: Capital One Orange Bowl
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
When: Friday, Dec. 30 at 8 p.m. EST (ESPN)
We hope that everyone had a relaxing holiday season, because the excitement for the Orange Bowl will begin to rise from here on out. Michigan had a tumultuous end to its season, losing two of its last three games by a last second field goal and double overtime. The Wolverines still impressed on their way to a 10-2 season with one of the best defenses in the nation. Florida State had an opposite route: it won its last four games and nine overall with an explosive offense. Perhaps this contrast is why the bowl is so highly anticipated.
Will Florida State’s defense stifle Michigan enough to give the FSU offense a chance? If it does, it will have to be without one of its key players in safety Ermon Lane. Lane suffered a broken foot in practice and was one of the pleasant defensive surprises after a slow start, and his injury now lessens the margin for error. Of course, if the offense puts in one of its regular performances, then the Seminoles might win by multiple scores. Dalvin Cook has never had a good bowl game performance, but he hopes to change that in his hometown of Miami — at the same stadium where he totaled 209 yards and a touchdown earlier this year.
Not many have asked whether or not Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh can motivate his team enough for a bowl game. But it remains a factor for a Wolverines squad that ended the season on a sour note after having the playoff in their sights. Regardless, even in their losses, Michigan’s defense was very stout. Many rank them second only to Alabama, and for good reason. The Wolverines are talented and experienced at every position, and have very few weaknesses. The offense doesn’t exactly match up, but if Michigan can shut down FSU’s weapons, it might not matter.
Lead writer Clint Eiland and editor Mike Ferguson break down the contest:
All-Time Series
The series is tied at 1-1 overall. FSU and Michigan have met twice in their history: once in 1986, and once in 1991. Both games were in Ann Arbor, with the first one being a tight 20-18 victory for Michigan. The second was a resounding 51-31 win for the Seminoles, led by running back Amp Lee, who totaled 201 yards and two touchdowns. The series went a long way in raising FSU’s esteem on the national stage.
Key Players for FSU
Clint: Dalvin Cook — It begins and ends with Cook. The greatest running back in FSU history will need to have one of his patented performances in order to defeat Michigan. This isn’t easy, but it isn’t impossible. Michigan State running back L.J. Scott had 139 yards and a touchdown on 6.3 yards per carry, and Iowa running back Akrum Wadley had 115 yards with 5.0 yards per carry against Michigan this season. Cook is clearly the best player out of those three, but he’s been shut down before. How he performs will dictate whether or not FSU wins. If he can combine for over 100 yards, the Seminoles should like their chances.
Mike: Deondre Francois — For Florida State to beat Michigan in Miami, redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois will need to make plays and minimize mistakes against a Michigan defense that ranks No. 1 nationally against the pass. As opponents have been doing for much of the season, the Wolverines will likely gear up to stop Dalvin Cook. Francois will need to be smart with the football and take shots when they present themselves against a Michigan defense that ranks fifth nationally in sacks.
Key Players for Michigan
Clint: Wilton Speight — It would be surprising to see any Michigan running back go over 100 yards on the night. Therefore, the Wolverines are going to have rely on Speight to propel their offense. He’s a capable quarterback, and he can put up yards at the very least. But the Michigan offense is not built like some of the other teams that had success against FSU. It really will be on Speight to perform well and find his talented receivers for the scores.
Mike: Jake Butt — The John Mackey Award winner looks to continue the trend of talented tight ends having monster games against FSU. Evan Engram of Ole Miss and Clemson’s Jordan Leggett each went over the 100-yard mark receiving and each found the end zone against FSU. Butt is a sure-handed target and will be especially key at extending drives for the Wolverines.
Game Breaker
Clint: Can FSU Secure the Ball? — What do the last two FSU bowl games have in common? Turnovers. In both the Oregon and Houston losses, the Seminoles had at least four turnovers. Not surprisingly, they also lost by at least two scores in each. The Michigan defense is the best they’ve seen all season, and every drive will matter if FSU wants to put points on the board. Therefore, fumbles from Cook and interceptions from Francois will need to be at a minimum.
Mike: Can FSU Keep the Michigan Defense Honest? — We all know how good the Michigan defense is. We all know how good Dalvin Cook. For Florida State to like its chances on Friday night, Cook will need to have the better night of those two mentioned. If Cook is stuffed from the get-go and quarterback Deondre Francois is forced to convert long third downs against a Michigan defense with a great pass rush and outstanding secondary, it will be a very long night.
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