The Daily Nole

Preview: FSU Looks to Defeat Rival Florida for Fourth Straight Year

wlpearce.com/FSU athletics

Who: No. 15 Florida Gators (8-2) at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (8-3)
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida
When: Saturday, Nov. 26 at 8 p.m. EST (ABC)
Last Week: Florida State defeated Syracuse 45-14; Florida defeated LSU 16-10.

Another year, another ranked match-up between the Florida State Seminoles and the Florida Gators. While it is not a top 5 (or even top 10) match-up, a victory for either team will be especially telling when it comes to the state of each program.

The Gators rather miraculously clinched the maligned SEC East in an upset win at LSU last week with a goal line stand. Head coach Jim McElwain, through all the injuries and uncertainty, has been able to lead the team to an 8-2 record and has proven that Florida was not down and out after losses to Tennessee and Arkansas by double digits. While both losses look pretty bad in retrospect, the Gators still have a top defense that can carry them through almost any game. Though it remains to be seen if the offense can be relied upon in any capacity.

Florida State knows that the 2016 season has been disappointing, but beating the two main rivals in Miami and Florida is still a worthwhile achievement. Both the offense and defense have rebounded lately with back-to-back solid performances against sub-par teams in Syracuse and Boston College. But how much of that is genuine improvement, and how much of it is simply overwhelming an opponent with far less talent? That question will be answered when the Seminoles play against a rival who is much closer to them in this area than much of the ACC.

Lead writer Clint Eiland and editor Mike Ferguson break down the match-up.

All-Time Series

Florida holds a 34-24-2 advantage over Florida State. The Gators dominated the Seminoles prior to Bobby Bowden’s hiring in 1976, accumulating a 16-2-1 advantage before the famed coach arrived in Tallahassee. Under his tenure, the Seminoles began to even it out with a 17-18-1 record by the end of 2009. Since Jimbo Fisher became the FSU head coach, the Seminoles are 5-1 against Florida.

Key Players for FSU

Clint: Tarvarus McFadden — It might seem like a tall task for the sophomore cornerback, but if he can get one of his nation-leading interceptions against Florida quarterback Austin Appleby, it would likely shift the momentum of the game completely. Those who watched Florida against Arkansas and Tennessee realize how much turnovers can alter a game. The Gators’ defense is great, but there’s not much they can do when they are constantly on the field and having to defend a short field. McFadden has progressed throughout the season and has shown himself to be especially adept at making quarterbacks pay for risky throws. He can do this once more by picking off a relatively underwhelming Appleby.

Mike: Derrick Nnadi — The biggest key for the Florida State defense on Saturday will be slowing down Jordan Scarlett and a power running offense. The key to doing that starts up front and for FSU, that’s on the interior with junior Derrick Nnadi. Nnadi has been outstanding over the final half of the season and will work to penetrate an offensive line that plays three sophomores and one freshman. If the Gators can’t win the early downs, that will bode well for an FSU defense that leads the country in sacks.

Key Players for Florida

Clint: Antonio Callaway — The concerns about the Florida State defense blowing coverages have not been entirely squashed in the recent string of games. While the Syracuse offense only mustered 14 points, there were multiple times when a receiver had a step on an FSU defender, only to get overthrown. This is a serious concern going up against an explosive player like Callaway, who only needs a little separation to burn the defense for a score. It could even be argued that Florida won the LSU game in large part due to just one big play. Florida State cannot let that happen, and must make sure the there is a defender near Callaway at all times.

Mike: Caleb Brantley — The reasons for picking Brantley aren’t much different than the reasons for picking Nnadi for FSU. Winning at the point of attack will be key in this contest. Defensive tackle Caleb Brantley is the best defensive lineman Florida has healthy and is a load in the middle. Brantley’s job Saturday will to get penetration and keep FSU from being able to get running back Dalvin Cook going. With two starting linebackers out, his burden is even bigger. If Brantley doesn’t win his battles, it’s hard to envision Florida winning the game.

Game Breaker

Clint: Can Deondre Francois Keep Up His Momentum? — If Francois plays like he has been for the past three games (averaging 62 percent completions, 276 passing yards, and 2 touchdowns) then it will be a blowout in the Seminoles’ favor. Not only would it spur the FSU offense through the air, but it would force the attention of the Florida defense away from Dalvin Cook, who is looking to finish his career undefeated against Florida. It’s going to be difficult against a Florida secondary with two likely first round cornerbacks in Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson. But if Francois can do it, the game might be over before the fourth quarter even begins.

Mike: Can Austin Appleby Make Enough Play? Florida is without question a run-first team and stopping Jordan Scarlett and the Florida ground attack will be priority No. 1 for the Seminoles on Saturday. If the Seminoles can do that and at least force Florida into 3rd-and-medium, Austin Appleby will be forced to make throws to keep drives alive. LSU has a much better defense than Florida State statistically, but last week, Appleby was just 7-for-17 passing for 144 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Including in those numbers is a 98-yard touchdown pass. If the FSU defense can put the game on Appleby’s shoulders, it should bode well for the Seminoles.

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