No Sugarcoating It: 2016 is Fisher’s Most Disappointing Season

The effort was commendable last Saturday night as Florida State was defeated at home by No. 3 Clemson 37-34, but it was the latest episode of heartbreak in what has been a disappointing 2016 for the Seminoles.

FSU sits just 5-3 with a 2-3 record in the ACC. The goals set before the season of an ACC title, a College Football Playoff spot and perhaps even a national championship have all gone out the window. The Seminoles can still salvage the season to some extent by winning out, which would mean beating Florida for a fourth straight year, winning a bowl game and getting to 10 wins.

No matter how you slice it though, 2016 will not only be a disappointing season for Florida State. It will be the most disappointing season in seven years under head coach Jimbo Fisher.

Even if FSU runs the table and finishes 10-3 and ranked in the top 15, the 2016 season will largely be regarded as one to forget. Unsafely assuming FSU does everything mentioned in the previous sentence, it wouldn’t be FSU’s worst record in Fisher’s tenure.

In each of his first two seasons, Fisher’s FSU teams lost four games. In 2010 when the Seminoles finished 10-4 however, FSU was able to win 10 games for the first time in seven years, played for the ACC title for the first time in five and defeat Florida for the first time in six.

In terms of comparability, the 2011 season is the only one in Fisher’s tenure that comes close. FSU finished 9-4 and ranked 23rd in the country after beginning the year at No. 6.

At that time however, Fisher was only beginning to build the program. As a whole, the Seminoles were just two years removed from their third 7-6 season in four years. FSU was seen by the optimists as a program on the ascension — not one that had reasserted itself as a national power as was the case heading into 2016.

The return to national prominence began to take place in 2012 as the Seminoles won their first ACC title in seven years and their first major bowl game in 13 while finishing ranked in the top 10. In 2013, FSU had one of the more dominant seasons in college football history, scoring more points than any FBS team ever on its way to a perfect 14-0 record and a third national championship. The team was sluggish at times in 2014, but still managed to finish the regular season undefeated, win the ACC and participate in the first-ever College Football Playoff.

A bit of a drop-off was expected in 2015 as FSU was losing all four starting offensive linemen, a former Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback in Jameis Winston, the school’s all-time leading receiver in Rashad Greene, the school’s only John Mackey Award winner in Nick O’Leary and four defensive players who left early for the NFL Draft. Still, the Seminoles went 10-2 last season and played in a New Year’s Six bowl in which it lost to Houston to finish 10-3.

With all 11 offensive starters and key defensive players like DeMarcus Walker, Marquez White and Derwin James returning, bigger and better things were expected in 2016. With four games remaining in the regular season and a possible bowl berth, the best that FSU can hope for is to equal what it did last season in what was largely regarded as a rebuilding year.

Not only can FSU not improve record-wise from last season, but the Seminoles have seen the nation’s longest home winning streak end as well. This year, FSU not only lost two home games for the first time since 2011, but it lost two home games to ACC opponents for the first time under Fisher.

It’s true that the Seminoles have played a tougher schedule in 2016 and the loss of James early in the season has been a killer. Still, the Seminoles don’t rank in the top 50 nationally in total defense and earlier this season, Louisville scored more points than any FSU opponent ever in a 63-20 throttling of then No. 2 Florida State. Though things have improved in recent weeks, breakdowns in coverage were the norm throughout the first month of the season.

An offensive line that returned all five starters started a different lineup in each of the first four games. In the latter stages of a tight game with Clemson last week, the Seminoles failed to pass protect against a 3-man rush or to do something as simple as remember the snap count. With guard Landon Dickerson hurt, FSU will start its fifth different combination up front in nine games on Saturday.

While everything that Florida State envisioned it could be prior to the season is off the table, finishing strong will still be important for the Seminoles. In 2011, FSU bounced back from a 2-3 start to win seven of its final eight games and set the tone for an ACC title run in 2012. With a relatively young roster and Florida still on the schedule, playing well down the stretch will set the tone for 2017 and help with recruiting.

Each season in college football has a way of defining who each team is as a program and serves as a reflection on the head coach. Will the 2016 Seminoles be remembered as team able to show resolve and finish in the top 10 or 15 despite an overall disappointing season or one who mailed it after being unable to find anything left to play for and potentially begin a slide down to college football’s second-tier? How they answer that question could have a bearing on the program in the years to come.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson