For 12th-ranked Florida State to pull off the upset of No. 3 Clemson in front of its home crowd on Saturday night, there’s no doubt that a lot will need to go right. The Tigers haven’t won in Tallahassee since 2006, but will be the first road favorite to come to Doak Campbell Stadium in more than five years.
While Clemson is very good on defense, the biggest concern for Florida State on Saturday night might be slowing down a Tiger offense that ranks 17th in passing and is averaging nearly 37 points per game. Running back Wayne Gallman will be in the lineup after battling a concussion, but the straw that stirs Clemson’s offensive drink is without a doubt junior quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson entered the 2016 season as the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and though that honor will likely go to Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, Watson is still seen by many as the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. FSU knows fully well what Watson is capable of.
In two contests against the Seminoles, Watson has averaged 350 total yards despite sharing time with Cole Stoudt in his last trip to Tallahassee in 2014. Watson has completed more than two-thirds of his passes against FSU and has yet to turn the ball over.
Given that Florida State has struggled with uptempo offenses and dual-threat quarterbacks, completely shutting down Watson doesn’t appear to be even within the realm of possibility. What the Seminoles must do is get him off the field when they have the chance.
In FSU’s five wins this season, it has allowed opponents to go 20-for-63 on third downs — a 32 percent conversion rate. In the Seminoles’ two losses, opponents are converting third downs at a 61 percent clip, going 14-for-23.
The return of Gallman will help the Tigers stay ahead of the chains on the early downs, but while FSU would be best served to win the early downs, doing so hasn’t necessarily guaranteed third down success this season. In FSU’s two losses, the Seminoles still allowed opponents to go 7-for-13 on third downs with to-go distances of five yards or longer.
The prospect of keeping Watson off the field however, won’t rely squarely on the defense.
The offense for Florida State has been very good this season. The Seminoles rank 25th nationally in total offense and are averaging nearly 35 points per game. It has done so by taking a methodical approach.
With Dalvin Cook at running back, it’s no surprise that the Seminoles have been able to bleed time off the clock. FSU ranks third nationally in time of possession and being able to possess the ball for long stretches on Saturday would go a long way in helping out the defense.
“When you’re at home, you want to score early and you want to put pressure on your opponent,†FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher said during Wednesday’s ACC teleconference. “We’ve got to be able to establish the run game and control the football.â€
FSU has yet to lose the time of possession battle and has possessed the ball for at least 36:57 in three of its five victories, including for more than 42 and a half minutes to open the year against Ole Miss.
As is the case with the FSU defense, winning on third down will go a long way in the upset effort. The Tigers will likely key in on stopping Cook and force redshirt freshman Deondre Francois to make throws on third down.
When the Seminoles have found a way to convert, things have ended well. In FSU’s five victories this season, the Seminoles are converting on 36 of 70 attempts on third down — a 51 percent rate. In FSU’s two defeats, it has managed to convert only a quarter of its third downs, going 6-for-24. The task will be tall Saturday night as Clemson ranks ninth nationally when it comes to getting third down stops.
In short, winning third downs, sustaining drives and shortening the game will go a long way in FSU being able to pull of the upset on Saturday. The Seminoles know what Watson can do as well as anyone. The less they see of him, the better off they’ll be.
Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson
You must be logged in to post a comment Login