The Clemson Tigers are undefeated and currently ranked No. 3 in the nation. They have victories over the No. 5 and No. 15 teams in the nation (Louisville and Auburn), possess a top 25 offense and defense, and have multiple early round NFL Draft picks currently playing.
Compare this to Florida State, who stands at No. 12 in the AP Poll with two losses. While both losses were to top 25 teams, it does not negate the glaring problems with a team filled to the brim with talent. A defense that ranks below average and an offense that struggles to find consistency are not the ceiling for the Florida State — not with the type of players it has and with the expectations set before the season.
So why does the upcoming Clemson game mean so much for the Seminoles? Why is this the game that could decide the season outlook?
Because whether Florida State wins or loses, the Clemson game has the ability to dictate the future of the program.
Such a development would not have happened if the earlier losses to Louisville and North Carolina went differently. Had FSU made the game close against the Cardinals, few would be discussing whether or not the coaches motivated the team properly, or if the players bought into the system. Two losses by slim margins could be attributed to plain luck or the natural unpredictability of football, but that is not how things turned out.
It has reached the point where discussion has begun about what parts of the team need to be altered. Depending on how the Clemson game goes, this discussion will progress along certain paths.
If Clemson comes out with a close win, it could go two ways. The first would be an offensive shootout that simply confirms the observations of the FSU defense up to this point. While the Tigers have plenty of elite talent on that side of the ball, FSU might have more lined up across it.
To once again let an offense run rampant might be the final straw for defensive coordinator Charles Kelly. It would prove that the recent uptick in performance was based solely on the strength of the competition, not any actual improvement on the defense’s part. Kelly wouldn’t get fired on the spot, but he would presumably be a lame duck on the coaching staff.
On the other hand, a close game with little scoring might be enough to maintain some hope for the future. If the FSU defense really was able to fix many of its issues and keep Clemson below its season averages, it could signal that the Seminoles were simply victim to untimely injuries and general bad luck. That comes with the stipulation that the defense would carry through the rest of the season, but it’s hard to see it not doing this if it was able to stifle Clemson after a bye week. The season would still be disappointing of course, but the losses would take on a new light.
An FSU win has fairly obvious implications. It would mean that the team didn’t just stick together, but collectively realized what its potential truly is. Florida State could even be launched back into the College Football Playoff discussion to an extent and most concerns about the team would likely be answered.
Depending on how the game plays out, it could either secure Kelly another year or keep his current trajectory steady. It almost certainly would reinforce Jimbo Fisher as a top 5 head coach in the nation, considering how some of the other coaches in his tier (Gary Patterson at TCU and Mark Dantonio at Michigan State) are currently doing.
The thought of a substantial FSU loss is what should worry some fans. Florida State getting routed would signal that the team has fundamental flaws which are seriously hampering the future of the program. In this scenario, it is once again a guarantee that major coaching changes would have to occur.
To have three losses in the ACC, with two of them being blowouts, is a serious indictment upon the coaching staff and its ability to put forth a competitive team. While the thought of Fisher leaving for another school is still far-fetched, a large loss by FSU makes the scenario slightly more plausible.
In many ways, this upcoming Clemson game has more riding on it than any of the previous contests in Jimbo Fisher’s tenure. The front loaded schedule that FSU started off with in 2016 has largely passed. There are only two games left for the Seminoles to prove themselves in: Clemson and Florida. Both are at home.
The other games are against opponents that are assumed victories, and thus they do not carry the weight that these two teams do.
It just so happens that Clemson is the better team at the moment. If there was ever a time to prove that the early losses were not indicative of an FSU decline, Saturday is that opportunity. How FSU plays will tell us more about the team than any contest before or after. This is the game that will make or break Florida State’s season.
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