How Much Does QB Play Need to Improve for FSU?

Though the matter is all but settled now with Sean Maguire’s injury, the hottest topic of discussion this offseason regarding Florida State was the quarterback position.

It’s the most scrutinized position in all of sports and for the Seminoles in 2016, it will fall into the hands of redshirt freshman Deondre Francois — a prospect that FSU fans seem to be happy about. The consensus last year was that play from under center was sub-par or inconsistent. There are good reasons behind those sentiments, but how drastic of an improvement does FSU need to be a contender in 2016?

As a team, the Seminoles finished with a passer rating of 142.7, good for 35th in the country. That was only one spot behind national champion Alabama and better than the likes of Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State and Miami. Three of those teams made New Year’s Six bowls a year ago and the other (Miami) has a quarterback in Brad Kaaya that many are projecting to be a first round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.

One of the biggest problems for FSU a season ago was consistency. Everett Golson made eight of the 13 starts for the Seminoles while Maguire made the other five.

Golson was good to outstanding against the likes of Texas State, Miami and Louisville. Against South Florida, Boston College, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, he was average to substandard. Against N.C. State, he was downright dreadful with three first half turnovers before being replaced with Maguire.

For Maguire, the results were similar. Against Syracuse, N.C. State in relief of Golson and against Chattanooga, Maguire was good to outstanding. Against Clemson, Florida and Houston in the Peach Bowl, Maguire struggled. In those last three games, he completed just 51 percent of his passes while throwing three touchdowns compared to five interceptions. Those were also the only three 10-win FBS teams the Seminoles played a season ago.

Despite ranking just outside the top quarter of the country when it came to passer rating, the Seminoles’ aerial attack was bad more often than it was good in 2015. The median FBS passer rating for the 128 teams was 130.2. Florida State was below that median threshold in eight of its 13 games. Two of the five contests where FSU was above the national median were against Texas State and Chattanooga.

On the surface, it might seem a bit optimistic to think that FSU can improve with a younger quarterback and a beefed up schedule. Francois however, will be playing behind a veteran offensive line and with a deeper, more experienced corps of backs, receivers and tight ends.

Improving the raw numbers however, won’t be as important for Florida State as in other areas like the aforementioned consistency. It’s easy to discount sound performances against Texas State or Chattanooga, but there was an 80-point difference in passer rating between Louisville and Clemson.

Statistically, Louisville only gave up about 27 more yards per game last season than Clemson and when the teams met on the field, the Tigers prevailed by the narrowest of margins, 20-17. While it’s worth noting that FSU started Golson against Louisville and Maguire at Clemson, the difference in performance was night and day.

Another thing FSU cannot do this season is playing musical quarterbacks. Injuries sometimes have an effect on such a matter, but stability under center is imperative in terms of making a national championship run.

Of the last 10 national champions, only 2014 Ohio State had its quarterback miss more than two starts. Alabama’s Jake Coker played in all 15 games last season, starting 14. Seven of the last 10 teams had their quarterback start every game. The other exception is LSU’s Matt Flynn in 2007, who missed two starts.

Perhaps the biggest area the Seminoles need to improve when it comes to passing is in the red zone. In the red zone last season, FSU was just 18-for-43 passing for 138 yards, 10 touchdowns and a pair of interceptions.

Of course, passing windows are tighter in the red zone and the field is more constrained, but the completion rate of less than 42 percent was about 33 percent lower than the team’s overall average completion rate of 63 percent. The Seminoles are also hoping some of the big, young receivers like George Campbell, Auden Tate, Da’Vante Phillips or Ja’Vonn Harrison can provide the red zone presence FSU sorely lacked last season. FSU finished just 109th in red zone efficiency.

So how does Deondre Francois fit into all of this?

Francois may actually be a nice combination of Golson and Maguire’s strengths. Like Golson, Francois has the ability to scramble or extend plays with his legs while still possessing Maguire’s big arm, ability to vertically stretch the field and gunslinger mentality. Though FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher was hesitant to utilize Golson’s legs last season, doing so with Francois and giving the redshirt freshman the run/pass option could also be among the solutions for solving the Seminoles’ red zone woes.

Overall, Florida State’s passer rating doesn’t have to change much. Last season, both Alabama and Michigan State showed that a team can reach the College Football Playoff with similar or worse numbers.

The areas where FSU’s quarterback position needs to improve were listed above: consistency, in the red zone and against better opponents. FSU’s four worst passing performances a year ago came against Clemson, Florida, Houston and Georgia Tech (in that order). Those four games accounted for all three of FSU’s losses in 2015.

If Francois’ production is similar to what Golson and Maguire combined for in 2015, the Seminoles should be good, probably great, maybe even elite. If Francois is unable to perform better in the red zone or against quality competition, they won’t be national champions.