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Thread: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

  1. #1
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    CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Surprising PNAS paper: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming



    The rise in temperatures along the U.S. West Coast during the past century is almost entirely the result of natural forces — not human emissions of greenhouse gases, according to a major new study released today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal temperature changes are widely interpreted in the framework of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to regional atmospheric dynamics. This study uses several independent data sources to demonstrate that century-long warming around the northeast Pacific margins, like multidecadal variability, can be primarily attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation. It presents a significant reinterpretation of the region’s recent climate change origins, showing that atmospheric conditions have changed substantially over the last century, that these changes are not likely related to historical anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, and that dynamical mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also apply to observed century-long trends.

    From a Seattle Times newspaper story: (h/t Dale Hartz)

    The vast majority of coastal temperature increases since 1900 are the result of changes in winds over the eastern Pacific Ocean, the authors found. But they could find no evidence that those weather patterns were themselves being influenced by the human burning of fossil fuels.



    Since the ocean is the biggest driver of temperature changes along the coast, the authors tracked land and sea surface temperatures there going back 113 years. They found that virtually all of the roughly 1 degree Celsius average temperature increase could be explained by changes in air circulation.

    “It’s a simple story, but the results are very surprising: We do not see a human hand in the warming of the West Coast,” said co-author Nate Mantua, with NOAA Fisheries Southwest Fisheries Science Center. “That is taking people by surprise, and may generate some blowback.”

    Source: http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/ ... dyxml.html

    The paper:

    Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012

    James A. Johnstone and Nathan J. Mantua

    Abstract

    Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ?0.5–1 °C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere–ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910–1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900–2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/2...coast-warming/

  2. #2

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    NPR's On Point program had an interesting guest last night. she wrote a book blaming global warming on capitalism. boy, they didn't realize it but the real agenda here totally came out.

    also Terry Gross interviewed some actor and they all had a laugh when he related a story that said his prosthetic face that he wore in a movie caused global warming due to the chemicals required to produce it.

    meanwhile we have morons marching in the streets demanding an end to big oil.

    it's about capitalism, not the climate. this BS is nothing but a way to try and get "social justice" policies in play, not save the climate.

  3. #3
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    There is nothing to "Do" to save the earth. The earth is more resilient than any liberal gives it credit for.

    All Global Warming is, is a way Liberals can force their policies down people's throats, who have common sense to not fall for their BS.

  4. #4

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Here's a link to the NPR "On Point" segment: Naomi Klein On ‘Capitalism Vs. The Climate’

    http://onpoint.wbur.org/2014/09/22/naom ... he-climate

    And here's the Terry Gross interview:

    http://www.npr.org/2014/09/22/349852498 ... formations

    Movie special effects cause global warming!

  5. #5

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming


  6. #6
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by The Tradition


    I am sure the propagandist will be along shortly, to get their asses handed to them again :mrgreen:

  7. #7

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Obvious propaganda churned out by professors looking for funding.

    Uh, seriously, besides for the irony of posters who have never paid any attention to hundreds of other PNAS peer reviewed studies, do you understand the difference between regional and world wide changes?

    I guess not.

  8. #8
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Just shut up before you embarrass yourself again.

    I am sure by now, we all know the difference between weather and climate. Regional and Global...

  9. #9

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    How can you have man-made "global" warming when the largest ocean on the globe has been shown to have experienced no man-made warming?

  10. #10

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by The Tradition
    How can you have man-made "global" warming when the largest ocean on the globe has been shown to have experienced no man-made warming?
    Dude, the study - why exactly are you all of a sudden you reading propaganda from the PNAS? - didn't say that. It is about the NE Pacific coastal region. Read before you speak.

  11. #11
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by wordjazz
    Quote Originally Posted by The Tradition
    How can you have man-made "global" warming when the largest ocean on the globe has been shown to have experienced no man-made warming?
    Dude, the study - why exactly are you all of a sudden you reading propaganda from the PNAS? - didn't say that. It is about the NE Pacific coastal region. Read before you speak.




  12. #12
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    UNREAL: UN Chief Renames ‘Climate Change’ As The Science Behind It Falls Apart

    There was a time when everyone feared “global warming,” but when that didn’t happen the moonbat left changed the name of their boogie man to “climate change,” an overly broad term that allows them to lump just about every weather phenomenon into one group. Now they’re trying once again to rebrand the so-called “catastrophic” changes in our climate, despite the fact they’ve been happening since the Earth has existed.

    U.N. Chief Marc Morano sent out an absurd tweet last night urging his fans to follow his lead in calling climate change something new — “climate disruption.” Why? Because “it’s more accurate.”

    Marc Morano @ClimateDepot
    Follow
    UN Chief: ‘I don’t use the term climate change – I think the more accurate term is climate disruption’ http://bit.ly/1qojKXF
    9:04 PM - 22 Sep 2014


    Yeah, it’s about as accurate as throwing BBs at the broad side of a barn and calling yourself a marksman.

    People on Twitter weren’t amused and quickly took to the site to lay into Mr. Morano, and rightfully so. People are tired of the left repacking the same talking points with new names and calling them great ideas.

    See Tweets here ---> http://madworldnews.com/un-renames-climate-change/

  13. #13

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Guck has the brain capacity of an infant with down syndrome when it comes to this stuff. It's bizarre that he keeps posting on the topic.

  14. #14
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne
    Guck has the brain capacity of an infant with down syndrome when it comes to this stuff. It's bizarre that he keeps posting on the topic.
    I am like the guy who picks your dweeble ass up and Slams you into a garbage can, in High School.

    Just because you say it enough doesn't make it so,..as with most Democrat points.

    You have already been measured,...and been found wanting,... ...

    You are a Straight up Idiot BRO,...and you prove it EVERYDAY. Not one post discrediting what I posted.... just your attempt to be funny.

    Even the Scientist that you think is on your side,.... says that it is BULLSH!T.

    Your Guck envy shows with every one of your retarded post....

  15. #15
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Guckster
    Quote Originally Posted by The Tradition
    This is the equivalent of your post there SoRetarded.

  16. #16
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    How long until Antarctic ice touches South America?




    Eric Worrall writes:

    Based on the current rate of Antarctic ice growth, how long until an ice bridge forms between South America and Antarctica?

    Lets start with a simplification – if you squint hard Antarctica is a circle. Antarctica, according to Wikipedia, is 14 million square miles. Sea ice this year covered 20 million square miles. So what is the radius of a 34 million square mile circle?

    area = PI x radius ^ 2

    so

    (34,000,000 / PI) ^ 0.5 = 3289 miles

    So the radius of our “circular” Antarctica is approximately 3289 miles.

    According to Wikipedia, the distance between Antarctica and South America is 500 miles. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_Passage So we need to calculate, what is the perfectly circular volume of sea ice required to increase the radius by another 500 miles?

    Using our area calculation,

    Area = PI x radius ^ 2

    Area = PI * (3289 + 500) ^ 2 = 45 million square miles.

    Since 34 million square miles (the land area of Antarctica + sea ice) is already taken, to increase the radius of Antarctica enough to close the gap, ice growth needs to fill in another 11 million square miles.

    At say 300,000 square miles growth per year (lets not forget, this year busted records by 600,000 square miles), and via my drastically simplified calculation, we could expect Antarctic ice to close the Drake passage in 36 years – by 2050.

    Interestingly 2055 – 2060 is the peak of the coming Little Ice Age event predicted by Dr. Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research sector of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ astronomical observatory, in his press release in 2006.

    http://en.ria.ru/russia/20060825/53143686.html

    This is a very rough calculation, so please don’t take it as a firm prediction – I am most definitely not a polar ice or ocean expert. There are many other factors, such as the brutal winds and currents which blast through the Drake Passage, which would likely impede the formation of sea ice. On the other hand, the growth of ice would increase the albedo of an enormous area of ocean, causing more sunlight to be reflected back into space – though as we are talking about polar ocean, it doesn’t receive much sunlight to start with.
    Story Title:
    One line summary of story: The growth of Antarctic ice

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/2...south-america/

  17. #17

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Guckster
    [
    I am like the guy who picks your dweeble ass up and Slams you into a garbage can, in High School.

    No, you're like the guy who tries to get a job as a middle school gym teacher for all the wrong reasons.


    WTF is "dweeble"?


    The new research is a regional climate study of historical sea level pressures, winds and temperatures over the eastern Pacific Ocean and draws no conclusions about climate change on a global scale. The study demonstrates the importance of understanding how climate variability on a regional scale may at least temporarily obscure larger forces acting on the global climate system.

    https://swfsc.noaa.gov/news.aspx?Div...Id=54&id=19504

  18. #18
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne
    Quote Originally Posted by Guckster
    [
    I am like the guy who picks your dweeble ass up and Slams you into a garbage can, in High School.

    No, you're like the guy who tries to get a job as a middle school gym teacher for all the wrong reasons.


    WTF is "dweeble"?
    A Dweebe,..is like the guy that you use as your moniker

    Which is a perfect pic for you to use.

    You are obsessed.... and are constantly getting OWNED by Guck....I can see why you are so obsessed

  19. #19

    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Guckster
    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne
    Quote Originally Posted by Guckster
    [
    I am like the guy who picks your dweeble ass up and Slams you into a garbage can, in High School.

    No, you're like the guy who tries to get a job as a middle school gym teacher for all the wrong reasons.


    WTF is "dweeble"?
    A Dweebe,..is like the guy that you use as your moniker

    Which is a perfect pic for you to use.

    You are obsessed.... and are constantly getting OWNED by Guck....I can see why you are so obsessed

    I don't care if you think I'm obsessed,. That's fine. It is absolutely clear you don't process any of the information that you post to support "your side". You either won't or can't.

  20. #20
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    Re: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

    Quote Originally Posted by TheOne


    I don't care if you think I'm obsessed,. That's fine. It is absolutely clear you don't process any of the information that you post to support "your side". You either won't or can't.

    Good,..I am glad you don't care,..I just want you to KNOW IT, AND OWN IT.

    I process information just fine.... that fact that you will Suck on the State's Tit....and take up for it with every fiber of your being.... tells me all I need to know.

    You Worship your masters,... we all get that....

    I am a threat to you and your Masters.....I get that too.

    If not.... you would crawl back under your rock....

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