The Daily Nole

Staff Keys to the Game: Louisville at FSU

Jeff Romance/FSU Athletics

Florida State faces Louisville at noon EST Saturday, in what was supposed to be one of the ACC’s premier games of 2017. However, both programs have limped through the season, suffering ugly losses and never quite reaching their potential.

So, the fact that FSU-Louisville has been reduced to a noon kickoff shouldn’t come as a surprise. Nevertheless, The Daily Nole staff is here to tell you what the Seminoles must do to avoid another home loss in 2017.

Mike Ferguson, editor

Maximize scoring opportunities

When it comes to moving the football, Florida State hasn’t been bad since the opener against Alabama. When it comes to having that actually result in points, the Seminoles have been dismal. FSU ranks last in the ACC at 18.2 points per game, but will be facing a high-scoring Louisville team that happens to be yielding 41.5 points per game in ACC play. FSU has been dismal in the red zone this season and continually leaves points on the field. Against a team quarterbacked by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, FSU must finish drives with touchdowns.

Get off the field on third down

Florida State has allowed opponents to convert just 33 percent of third downs and it will need to be on its game on Saturday. When the Seminoles have the opportunity to get off the field defensively, they must take advantage. Louisville is converting 46 percent of its third downs on the year and went 5-for-10 on third down conversions in last season’s 63-20 win. Missed opportunities against quarterback Lamar Jackson and company will certainly lead to Louisville points.

Run, run, run

For Florida State to finally score more than 26 points, which it will probably need to, it will need a big day from the dynamic rushing duo of junior Jacques Patrick and freshman Cam Akers. Louisville is coming off a contest in which it allowed nearly 400 yards on the ground and 6.2 yards per carry to a Boston College team who had previously ranked last in the ACC in total offense. Akers and Patrick have combined to rush for more than 200 yards in each of the last two weeks and FSU will hope for another big day.

Clint Eiland, lead writer

Focus on Lamar Jackson

There is exactly one player who will win this game for Louisville. The returning Heisman winner hasn’t been able to translate his numbers to team wins, but that’s largely on everyone around him. Jackson truly is Michael Vick at Virginia Tech level elite. The defense will need to put all its energy into making sure that he doesn’t gash them for big scoring plays. He’s going to get his, but he can be slowed down.

Establish the run game

Running backs Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick are finally hitting their stride within the offense. Louisville’s run defense ranges from mediocre to terrible. Florida State can get easy yards and move the ball effectively if its two main tailbacks get fed early. It also forces Louisville to play to FSU’s tempo.

Start hot

For just one drive last week, Florida State fans witnessed an amazing sight. The Seminoles received the ball, marched right into Duke territory, and put up seven on the board. In what seems to be a recurring theme each season, Florida State has struggled to start hot like they did against Duke. If Lamar Jackson has the game many are expecting him to, it will turn into a shootout. Should that be the case, then FSU will need to maximize its scoring opportunities from the opening kickoff.

Joshua Mixon, staff writer

Minimize Jackson’s damage

Lamar Jackson is a generational quarterback who can and will rack up yards against the Seminoles, both through the air and on the ground. And FSU just has to understand that it’s going to happen, no matter what defense coordinator Charles Kelly draws up. He’s just too good. That said, FSU can at least try to minimize his impact. Keeping safety Derwin James as a spy on Jackson is probably a good idea, given the junior’s track record against Jackson (James was a key factor in shutting him down back in 2015). Louisville is going to score points, and probably a decent bit of them. Kelly’s job is to draw up a defense that at least provides some resistance.

Score. No seriously, like, actually score. A lot. 

Field goals aren’t going to do much good when facing a team like the Cardinals. Bobby Petrino’s offense can put up points on the best of them, which means that it absolutely will score against FSU. For the Noles to win this one, they must have their best offensive performance of the season. Like, easily their best performance, because they’ll likely need to score more than 30 points. If FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher’s game plan — and his offense’s execution — isn’t perfect, the Seminoles will get run out of their own stadium by halftime.

Mix up the play calling

There were more than two drives against Wake Forest on Sept. 30 where Fisher called his offensive plays in a “run-run-pass” order. Given, he clearly didn’t have much confidence in quarterback James Blackman at that point, but the point remains: FSU must mix up the play-calling and keep Louisville’s pretty-bad defense on its heels. Defensively, Kelly must adjust his blitz calls to where they aren’t so telegraphed. If Jackson sees cornerback Tarvarus McFadden showing blitz and audibles, Kelly darn sure better audible too, or Jackson will rip his defense to shreds.

Josh Mixon covers Florida State athletics for The Daily Nole. You can find him on Twitter @JoshDMixon.

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