Who: Louisville Cardinals (4-3, 1-3 ACC) at Florida State Seminoles (2-3, 2-2 ACC)
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida
When: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 12 p.m. EST (ESPN)
The Florida State Seminoles have not won a home football game since November 2016. After losses at Doak Campbell to N.C. State and Miami, fans are desperate for a sign of life from Jimbo Fisher’s squad. Time is running out for a “good” victory.
While later games against Delaware State and Syracuse will probably see the Seminoles favored, they will not have the same impact as a win over the Louisville Cardinals. If nothing else, it should serve as a revenge game for last year’s 63-20 thrashing. Florida State hopes to do this on the back of a strong running game and stout defensive line.
Louisville has had a bit of a nightmare season. Despite bringing back a Heisman winner, the Cardinals have three losses already to Clemson, N.C. State, and Boston College. The latter two were in back-to-back weeks. Simply put, the Cardinals are a clearly inferior team to what they had last year. A very suspect defense and top-heavy offense has many Louisville fans wondering if Bobby Petrino can be trusted as head coach. Have no doubt however: quarterback Lamar Jackson can carry the team to at least seven wins alone.
Lead writer Clint Eiland and editor Mike Ferguson break down the match-up:
Biggest Louisville Advantage
Clint: Vulnerable FSU Defense – Florida State fans are well aware of what Lamar Jackson can do if he isn’t contained. That’s why many are dreading Saturday’s game. Florida State’s defense has been disappointing and is not playing up to the potential of its talent. Jackson and the Cardinals’ offense can put a hurting on teams that struggle to stop mobile quarterbacks. Florida State performed pretty well against Jalen Hurts of Alabama, but that seems like ages ago, and it’s not clear if they’ll be able to repeat that performance.
Mike: The Ability to Score – Louisville behind Lamar Jackson is averaging better than 38 points per game and can put them up in a hurry. Florida State, on the other hand, ranks last in the ACC in both total offense and points per game. Fortunately for FSU, the defense has been pretty good. Against three top-25 offenses this season in Alabama, N.C. State and Miami, the Seminoles have held that opponent to their lowest point total of the year so far. The Cardinals are incredibly vulnerable on defense, but can FSU take advantage of that vulnerability and turn it into points? Jackson already has 26 total touchdowns this season in seven games. In five games, the Seminoles have just eight as a team.
Biggest FSU Advantage
Clint: Offense Heating Up – Boston College had broken the 200-yard rushing mark just once before last week’s Louisville game. The Eagles proceeded to put up 364 yards on 6.2 yards per carry with five rushing touchdowns. BC freshman A.J. Dillon alone had 272 yards. That bodes well for an FSU offense that has gained 203 and 228 rushing yards in the most recent two games. Running backs Jacques Patrick and Cam Akers are heating up at just the right time, behind an offensive line that has stepped up its own play.
Mike: The FSU Ground Attack – Defensively, Louisville has been a disaster, especially in ACC play. In four ACC games this season, the Cardinals are allowing 41.5 points per game and the biggest weakness is stopping the run. In last week’s loss to Boston College, Louisville made BC freshman A.J. Dillon look like Eric Dickerson. The FSU duo of Jacques Patrick and Cam Akers have combined to eclipse the 200-yard mark in each of the last two weeks. If FSU is to win this game, it must make that trend continue.
Game Breaker
Clint: Will the Defense Make Enough Stops? – Offense is not that worrying heading in to the Louisville game. Yes, it has been a weak spot, but recent trends suggest that the Seminoles will be able to move the ball against the Cardinals. But the way the defense has played in the past few weeks is troubling. They showed exactly one half of maximum effort and performance — against the rival Miami Hurricanes on Oct. 7. If the game turns into a shootout, the favorite has to be Louisville, if for no other reason than having Lamar Jackson on its side. It’s up to the defense to provoke a turnover or halt the opposing offense at least a few times.
Mike: Who Wins on Third Down? – Getting Louisville’s offense off the field when it has the chance is absolutely vital for Florida State to get its first home win of the year on Saturday. The Cardinals are converting 46 percent of their third downs this season and went 5-for-10 against FSU last season. Defensively, FSU is allowing a conversion just 33 percent of the time. The problem is offensively where FSU ranks 108th with a conversion rate of less than 33 percent. The Cardinals are giving up third down conversions 39 percent of the time and allowed Boston College to go 9-for-18 last week.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login