Making the Case: FSU vs. Alabama

Not many more things can be said about the match-up between the Florida State Seminoles and the Alabama Crimson Tide. A full offseason of hype has been building towards Sept. 2’s contest in Atlanta.

Roster breakdowns, film analysis, opinion columns, every single piece you could think of has probably been written already. Now it’s time to discuss the actual game plans the teams will implement.

FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher is no stranger to big games. Even when FSU is the underdog, (Clemson 2013, Michigan 2016) Fisher has the Seminoles playing like the favorite. His staff already knows what they’ll try to do against Alabama’s Nick Saban and his dynasty.

While we can’t know for sure what that will be, we can have a certain idea. If the Seminoles are to capture victory in one of the biggest openers of all-time, this is how it might happen. If they don’t? We have an idea about that too.

Winning

Defensive line pressuring Jalen Hurts
The No. 1 tactic to reducing Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts’ effectiveness is making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Yes, he can beat you on the ground if you let him, but a quarterback who is not proficient as a passer nullifies the talent around him. Florida State returns a lot of its sack production from last year in defensive ends Brian Burns and Josh Sweat. Add in defensive tackles like Derrick Nnadi and Demarcus Christmas, and the Seminoles are well-built to dial up the pressure.

Shutting down Hurts’ passing obviously isn’t the only key to victory. But here’s something to consider: Alabama faced six top 25 defenses in the S&P ratings. What was the production like from the quarterback position? Only a 55 percent completion rate, 140 yards per game passing, six touchdowns, four interceptions, 50 rushing yards per game, five rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles. That’s a mediocre quarterback.

Derwin James patrolling
Few players have received the hype that FSU safety Derwin James has heading into the 2017 season. There’s a good reason for that. His versatility makes him an absolute nightmare to game plan against. Depending on how Florida State needs him, James will be all over the field on Sept. 2. If Alabama had concerns about Hurts’ play-execution beforehand, James patrolling just exaggerates those worries. He’s a real game-changer, who is going to force Alabama to make plays away from his side of the field.

Exploit weaknesses on defensive front
Florida State’s offensive line was often the target of criticism last season. Some of that was deserved, some of it was ignoring other factors at play. What’s definitely true is that the FSU offensive line has an advantage heading into the match-up with Alabama. Almost every single expected starter — Alec Eberle, Derrick Kelly, Landon Dickerson, etc. — has received starting reps before. Counter this with the Alabama defensive front. The Crimson Tide lost some of their best linemen to the NFL in Jonathan Allen, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Tim Williams, along with most of the linebacker production.

Alabama will obviously replace them with loads of talent. Experience still helps however, and the lack of it for the Alabama defense means that Florida State can come right out and deliver punches from the beginning of the game. That’s going to rely a lot on the offensive line, who showed last year that they have potential. It will be up to the big uglies up front to make running lanes for the backs and to keep quarterback Deondre Francois upright.

Keep the secondary honest
Alabama might not have a transcendent talent in the secondary just yet. But it has the next best thing: Minkah Fitzpatrick, who projects to be a top 15 draft selection. Many observed in 2017 that the biggest “weakness” of the Crimson Tide defense was the cornerback position. Marlon Humphrey was good, but Anthony Averett was still adjusting to his first year of starting. Now, Averett is a solidified starter and Alabama returns multiple experienced defensive backs.

This all means that Florida State is going to have a tough time passing when Sept. 2 comes around. But the Seminoles don’t need to light it up downfield in order to win. They just need to keep the Alabama defensive backs in coverage and make sure that players like Fitzpatrick aren’t given opportunities to make plays in the backfield. Something similar occurred when FSU played Clemson last year. Even though Francois was not impressive in the stat sheet, he kept threatening with deep passes and forced the Clemson secondary into bad spots. Fans then witnessed what the Seminoles did to one of the best defenses in the nation. Alabama tends to be that on a perennial basis.

Losing

Early season communication struggles
There could be three separate points under this one topic, but since this applies to all three, it makes sense to group them together.

The No. 1 reason FSU struggled early last year were the errors arising from communication. It applied much more to the defense than the offense, but no part of the team was immune from the same issue.

Most witnessed this in the defensive secondary when Derwin James went out with an injury. The cornerbacks and the safeties were clearly not on the same page. Almost everything that could go wrong here actually did go wrong: two players would defend the same guy, someone wouldn’t cover the right area, there would be no safety help on deep passes, etc. All it takes is one big play to bust a game wide open and put your team into an early deficit. The secondary did get better as the season went on. This group just needs to make sure they start hot for 2017.

Problems defending the read-option were less apparent, though that was mainly due to the lack of teams down the stretch who used it (or at least had the talent to do so). Everyone still remembers the sheer helplessness of the Louisville game however. It became apparent in film review that the linebackers did not know the assignments. Jalen Hurts is not Lamar Jackson, but he’s has shown plenty of times that he can change the game with his feet. If the Alabama offense consistently gets chunks of yardage on these types of plays, it’s going to get ugly.

Finally, the offensive line had some poor moments too. Most attributed it to linemen simply getting beat. While that certainly did happen: the line would sometimes give up sacks on 3-man rushes or leave certain players unaccounted for. Theoretically, this should be ironed out with the amount of returning starters, including the center Eberle. Never doubt an Alabama defense, however.

Talented Bama secondary taking away options
One of the keys to victory mentioned above was keeping the Alabama secondary honest. That is a lot easier said than done. Games like Michigan in the Orange Bowl showed that Florida State did not need superb production from the quarterback to win the game. At the same time, Francois capitalized on key plays and once again kept the Michigan defense on its heels. Alabama is going to have a much easier time if Francois is unable to do so in the opener.

Receivers like Auden Tate and Nyqwan Murray have the talent to pose a major threat to any defense they play. But if they can’t get separation and aren’t giving Francois options to throw to, the task becomes much more difficult for FSU.