Suffice to say, it has been a hectic weekend for former Florida State kicker Roberto Aguayo. On Saturday afternoon, he was released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took him in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft. By Sunday afternoon, he had been picked up off waivers by the Chicago Bears, who are supposedly bringing him in to try and compete for the kicking job.
Despite the latest good news for Aguayo, many are still left wondering where it all went wrong. How does one of the best kickers in NCAA history have such a bad year in the NFL? Some of it surely has to do with the difference in both hash marks and the actual ball they kick. It can take some time to get used to when you’ve kicked something else in-game for three straight years.
Yet, Aguayo never actually seemed to adjust all that much, even with a full offseason of practice. In the Bucs’ first preseason game, he missed both an extra point and a field goal attempt. Tampa Bay didn’t like what it saw, and he was cut before the weekend was over.
He still has a chance to become a productive NFL kicker, of course. He’s only had one year under his belt and other teams are clearly willing to give him a chance. But where did it all go wrong? Were there any signs that Aguayo was going to struggle?
Yes, but it was not what one would think.
Most fans already know about Aguayo’s drop in production during his junior season in 2015. His first two seasons in 2013 and 2014 saw him hit over 90 percent of all his field goal attempts; his final year at Florida State was much less impressive with a percentage of slightly above 80 percent. He was still a good kicker — he just wasn’t the automatic machine fans witnessed in his first two seasons.
With the help of the fantastic work done by Nolefan.org, the more in-depth numbers point to some obvious conclusions.
The numbers for 2013 are obviously fantastic. They are characterized by much less strain put on Aguayo to score. He only had 22 field goal attempts over the entire year, which was the least of any season. Of the 10 kicks he had that were 40-plus yards, he made nine of them. The interesting tidbit to note is this: his average yardage per attempt was also the lowest it ever was at 34.27 yards.
Florida State was so good on offense that year that Aguayo didn’t need to carry much of the scoring load, since the offense rarely stalled. When it did, it was usually closer to the goal line. In some ways this probably gave him a confidence boost of sorts.
2014 is where it gets interesting. After looking at some of the splits, Aguayo was arguably more impressive here than his freshman year. The Seminoles asked him to attempt 30 field goals throughout the season, including 12 that were at least 40 yards. Of those 12, four of them were from 50-plus yards.
Again, he did well and converted nine of 12 of those attempts, which is not a bad mark from that distance. It also helped contribute to his average yardage per attempt being the highest of any season at FSU. It came in at 36.4 yards, which is significant when looking at Aguayo’s numbers from his other two seasons. Despite these challenges, he was still able to notch 90 percent overall.
His junior year is where the problem becomes apparent.
By all accounts, Aguayo was set up to do very well. He had 26 total attempts, which is a nice middle ground between his previous 22 and 30. His average yardage per attempt was 34.3, almost exactly the same as his excellent freshman year. FSU only had him attempt 10 kicks of more than 40 yards, the same amount as 2013. Seems like a perfect recipe for another elite season.
Instead, his percentage plummeted by almost 10 points. The most egregious drop came on kicks of 40-plus yards, where Aguayo was only 5-for-10 on the year. Long distance kicks are always going to be more difficult, but going from 90 percent to 75 percent to 50 percent should have been the clear red flag that something had changed with Aguayo.
Naturally, kickers are going to miss on some attempts. When it becomes a pattern is the distressing part.
How did he do on 40+ yard kicks in 2016? 5-for-11.
Aguayo has shown that he can hit those long distance attempts. Going 18-for-22 at one point proves that he has the natural talent at the very least. But how he can get back to that level of consistency remains to be seen. It could involve any number of factors from kicking mechanics, to positioning, to even just pressure.
Either way, Aguayo is going to need to figure it out sooner rather than later. Kickers don’t have extended stays in the NFL unless they’re good and no team keeps more than one on the roster. But even then, good kickers can bounce around from team to team. His next stop in Chicago might be his last if he repeats what everyone saw in Tampa Bay.
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