The Daily Nole

Three Things to Consider as FSU Baseball Enters Final Stretch

Phil Kelly/FSU athletics

Fortunately for Florida State, the murderer’s row of teams it had to face is now over. After 11 series games combined against North Carolina, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina State, and Clemson, the Seminoles finished 5-6 overall.

They won the series against FGCU and Clemson, while getting swept at North Carolina and grabbing one at N.C. State. Despite devastating losses like the one to Clemson on J.D. Drew jersey retirement night, or the extra inning affair against North Carolina, the Seminoles showed resilience and were able to grab much-needed victories over good teams.

Yet, many will be left wondering “what if” after the past couple of weeks. Florida State was never “out” of any game. It stayed competitive in each contest and impressed with its ability to maintain any sort of momentum.

Yet the Seminoles still came out with a sub-.500 record and multiple missed opportunities. The most glaring example? Perhaps the fact that they were pitching a no-hitter against North Carolina up until one out remaining in the ninth inning. They lost that contest 5-2 in the 11th.

A while back, there was a post that talked about expectations for the difficult stretch. It said that how the team played in that part of its schedule would determine its probable fate for the rest of the season. After witnessing the results, there are a few conclusions to be drawn about FSU baseball.

Health Plays a Bigger Role Than Previously Thought

At various points throughout the season, Drew Mendoza, Jackson Lueck, and Dylan Busby have all missed time due to injuries. All three of those players are starters and have turned out to be pretty productive ones at that (Lueck and Busby are both top five on the team in slugging percentage). Perhaps not surprisingly, Florida State is 6-2 overall when all three are in the lineup. It seems fairly evident: of course a team would improve as they got healthy. Why is it news?

Because coming in to the season, it was thought that the Seminoles were deep enough to withstand injuries. It was assumed that they had enough firepower and talent even with Mendoza out for the first 27 games. It’s now over halfway through with the season and that is clearly not true. Florida State simply struggles to get into rhythm without its full lineup on deck. The way the schedule is set up is beneficial in this respect. The Seminoles are now healthy and will face a number of good (but not great) teams. It’s hard not to like their chances at making the postseason at this point, but imagine that being said a few months ago.

Pitching Situation Remains Limiting

The sky was the limit for Florida State pitching when the season started. All the Seminoles needed to do was find a reliable closer and they’d have a deep bullpen which could propel them to 40-plus wins easily. Now it seems that they may have already reached their ceiling. The Seminoles have a great pitcher in Tyler Holton, who has a 2.92 ERA and has impressed against ranked teams like North Carolina. Then they have some good pitchers in Drew Carlton (1.64 ERA) and Chase Haney (3.86 ERA). But beyond that, it has been disappointing. Pitchers like Cole Sands, Drew Parrish, and Alec Byrd have all struggled to find their niche this season, and none of them can properly be relied upon to get the team out of a jam or to finish out a game.

It’s not clear how exactly this gets remedied. Head coach Mike Martin announced a few games back that Carlton would be turned into a jack-of-all-trades pitcher, but it’s hard to see how that’s anything more than a bit of a desperation move. At the end of the day, it’s baseball. Florida State will just need to hope that someone else steps up and plays to its potential. The upside is that the offensive production can help cover up the weakness, at least against teams that do not have great pitching.

Fielding is Oddly Sub-par

Normally this would not be a big enough issue to make note of, but now that Florida State has lost a game on a fielding error, it seems appropriate to include it. The Seminoles currently have the 84th most errors in the nation (52), which while not a good number, is not absolutely terrible. But ranking 167th in fielding percentage is nearing that terrible mark. For whatever reason, Florida State is missing easy outs and letting teams score runs that are totally preventable. Think of how many close games the Seminoles have had where they committed at least one fielding error (North Carolina, Miami). It’s becoming egregious. In fact, about 19 percent of the runs allowed by FSU this season have been unearned.

Once again, it is not clear how something like this gets remedied. Drew Mendoza was the source of a handful when he played third base, but keep in mind that he was coming back from injury. Shortstop Taylor Walls being suspended for two games compounded the issue and highlighted weaknesses in the infield. This might not be something that makes or breaks a season, but it can easily turn the tide of a game or two and cause frustrating losses.

There are four series remaining. They are against Virginia, Pacific, Wake Forest, and Louisville. All of the ACC teams are ranked, though only Louisville is near the top like North Carolina and Clemson were.

This end of the season is not “weak” in any terms. It does give a slight rest from the murderer’s row earlier in the month, but it’s still relatively difficult. All the guessing is over. Florida State baseball is what it will be for the rest of the season. How that plays out is still up in the air.

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