The State of FSU Basketball Post 2016-17 Season

Few teams experienced the wild change in expectations like Florida State basketball did. If one was asked about the team before the season started, the common answer would have been this: it should make the tournament, but the ACC will be a tough conference.

Both those actually came true. In fact, the basketball team likely exceeded expectations when considering the preseason predictions. The media picked the Seminoles to finish eighth overall in the ACC. They finished second.

Even The Daily Nole writers predicted a significantly lower finish than what actually happened. For what it’s worth, Clint Eiland seemed to have nailed the season ending: The Seminoles make it to the NCAA Tournament and win their first round game before falling in the second round. Clairvoyant, almost.

The point is, FSU basketball performed better than many of us expected it to.

So why are people angry?

Because for a few games, right after a string of ranked victories, Seminole fans saw the mountaintop.

They saw what the team could do. They saw what two star players, veterans, and a deep roster could do in a tough conference. For a few games, it looked like Florida State was going to assemble into perhaps the greatest iteration of its basketball team yet.

As we all know by now, FSU was bounced in the round of 32, and has nothing to show for the season besides one tournament victory.

It’s disappointing. Many fans are willing to push the reset button, all because head coach Leonard Hamilton and staff were unable to lead the team to greater heights in the postseason. It’s understandable, but the current reality is much more complicated.

During the post-season recap for football, we made the statement that “The common move is to look at pure wins and losses to determine the future of a team. In some ways this can help, but it is only one factor in a laundry list of things like recruiting talent, advanced metrics and staff changes.”

This statement continues to hold true, but it is somewhat less clear for basketball than it is football. Here are Kenpom rankings for FSU over the past five years. They are split up into overall rank, adjusted offensive efficiency, and adjusted defensive efficiency.

More or less, that is a fairly accurate picture of what the basketball team actually did in those years. It made just one NCAA Tournament appearance, and finished sixth or below in the ACC in all but one of those seasons. There is no large discrepancy between the numbers and the hardware (as there usually isn’t).

Concerns remain however.

The first is the lack of a top FSU defense. Hamilton made his name at FSU with his “junkyard dog defense” which routinely stifled more talented opponents. It was not always pretty, but it got the job done, despite some lackluster offenses. Here are the defensive rankings for the five years prior to the 2012-13 season: 10th, 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 49th.

The absolute worst defense from those years would be the second best of the next five. Perhaps not surprisingly, here were the results from those five years: Round of 32, Sweet 16, Round of 64, Round of 64, NIT First Round.

What happened?

A change in recruiting talent does not appear to be the answer. The 2009 class had two 5-stars in Michael Snaer and Chris Singleton, and the next few classes added multiple 4-stars. From 2009 onward, only one recruiting class finished below 50th in the 247Sports Composite rankings. That might not win the ACC often, considering the number of elite basketball programs in the conference, but it will almost certainly put one in the NCAA Tournament.

Rankings are not the end-all, be-all though.

A team can have a lot of talent but not utilize it in the best fashion. Jonathan Isaac was probably mismanaged this year, despite his clear impact. Players who are 6-11 and have the athleticism of a guard need to be given more opportunities to actually shoot the ball and take advantage of mismatches. That isn’t solely on the coaches — a good amount of it is Isaac still gaining confidence as a player — but it would have been beneficial to see him used more creatively.

Dwayne Bacon is actually a pretty good example of this as well. He’s an immensely talented player who can be molded into whatever a team might need him to be. The Seminoles needed him to be the primary scorer, so that’s how Hamilton utilized his talents. Unfortunately, that somehow meant that his defensive potential was all but wasted. Bacon was such a liability on that end of the court that he even got benched in certain games.

In fact, there was a surprisingly high number of players on the team this year whose defenses would have never been accepted on previous teams. It’s really not clear why this has occurred. The main theory would seem to be that Hamilton switched up either his coaching style or his recruiting vision. But watching teams get wide open looks behind the arc was uncharacteristic of typical Hamilton teams.

So where does Florida State stand when it comes to actual roster talent?

As of now, three players are projected to depart early: Bacon, who declared for the NBA Draft on Wednesday, Isaac and Xavier Rathan-Mayes. Any one of them returning would provide a boost to the team’s prospects, but it simply does not appear that way at the moment.

The turnover for FSU is not even near the level one might think. The Seminoles only have five players departing. The obvious issue is that they are losing four starters — the three mentioned and Michael Ojo — and the only other big man (Jarquez Smith) who showed offensive ability.

The Seminoles team that walks on to the court next season is going to lose much of its teeth from this past year. There are no proven elite players and none that have any sort of larger hype around them. With that in mind, it is not nearly as precarious a situation as one might expect.

Despite losing XRM, the guard play for the Seminoles should be fine for next season. C.J. Walker impressed with his offensive attacking ability and looked more like a true point guard than what Rathan-Mayes has brought for the past few seasons. Terance Mann provides a nice compliment as a stout defender and rebounder, providing help in two areas that Walker lacks. Those two starting beside each other will be an exciting storyline to watch as the season unfolds.

Behind them are a group of effective backups and rotational pieces. Braian Angola-Rodas had a roller coaster of a season, but he came on strong at the end with 17 points against Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament and improved his defensive aggression.

Trent Forrest has the size that Mann utilizes so well and more natural scoring ability. Look for him to perhaps play more small forward. P.J. Savoy had a bad finish to this year as well, but he clearly had the shooting stroke that FSU needed in the replacement of Devon Bookert.

Florida State has two guards committed in Anthony Polite and Bryan Trimble, both of whom have opposite skill sets. Polite is a natural scorer while Trimble is a great defender. They will likely only get end of game minutes or slight rotational reps.

The frontcourt situation is where troubles might lay ahead.

The loss of Ojo and Smith leaves the Seminoles without two of their leading players at power forward and center. The presumed starters to begin next season would be Phil Cofer and Christ Koumadje. The latter is actually interesting to consider, because it became evident that Koumadje really bought into his role on the team.

His shot-blocking ability had a clear impact against multiple teams, and he always chipped in a few buckets under the rim. Another offseason of development could turn him into a defensive anchor in the paint.

Cofer continues to bewilder fans and analysts alike. He clearly has the raw talent to become a threatening stretch forward, but his terrible shot selection and inconsistent defense became a running theme as the season went along. He simply did not fit into what the team was wishing to accomplish.

Now that Bacon and Isaac are almost certainly leaving, Cofer might actually find his most effective spot. But that is no guarantee at this point.

Behind those two is a lot of unproven talent.

Mfiondu Kabengele is a 6-8, 235-pound forward who was recruited last year, but didn’t play this season. He was always considered a project player so this was not surprising. He provides more in the way of offensive ability, as he displayed great touch around the rim in high school and some shooting prowess. Expect Kabengele to get his feet wet next season with playing time.

Currently FSU has two forwards and one center committed for the 2017 class. The two forwards are RaiQuan Gray and Wyatt Wilkes. Gray is the definition of a stretch forward, as he possesses great shooting stroke and can hit outside shots while still attacking the board. Wilkes is probably more of a small forward, as he doesn’t have the size to really battle down low, but he does have great handles and good range.

The one center is Ikechukwu Obiagu. He could be much like Koumadje was two years ago and get early playing time due to his defensive potential. He’s a top 100 player in the nation, who excels on defense and is not as much a project as Koumadje was. Obiagu is interesting and has the best chance of contributing immediately of all the players in the recruiting class.

Yet in all this discussion, the larger vision for the program sometimes gets lost. Where do the Seminoles go from here, having sputtered to the finish line and now having to replace their best players?

I think something more frustrating than being “bad” is about to occur.

Florida State is going to be above average.

Anyone expecting the Seminoles to be terrible next season is probably going to be shocked. They still have good talent, and Hamilton, despite all his faults, has a high floor as a coach.

But they won’t be near a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They will likely find themselves once again on the bubble, with a .500 to sub-.500 ACC record, hoping for other teams to win/lose to help their chances. A big upset or two might occur against a powerhouse team, and there should be enough interest to keep fans paying attention to the program.

Teams like this year’s don’t come around often. Fans are going to realize that in the 2017-18 season. Until serious focus (read: money) is put on the basketball program, Florida State will be a middle-tier ACC program that has no legitimate postseason expectations with a few special seasons popping up here and there.

It’s going to play second fiddle to football, and it is highly unlikely that changes will occur unless the program completely bottoms out. How Hamilton will go about improving his squad’s defense and replacing veterans is up in the air.

Will athletics boosters accept this? Will fans accept this? It’s hard to tell. Past history indicates that this might be as good as it gets for the Seminoles as long as Hamilton is head coach and as long as the program receives the amount of support it does.