West Region First Round Primer: (3) FSU vs. (14) FGCU

For the first time in five years, Florida State will play in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night as the Seminoles head to the Amway Center to take on Florida Gulf Coast. The No. 3 vs. 14 match-up in the West Region has many intrigued as some have speculated that FGCU could make a deep run after reaching the Sweet 16 in 2013. Thursday’s contest is slated to tip off after 9:20 p.m. EST and will air on TNT.

The Basic

The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles are 26-7 overall on the season. They play in the Atlantic Sun Conference, where they won the conference championship this past year. This is their third NCAA Tournament appearance in their short Division I history (started in 2013). They score 79.4 points per game (44th in the nation) and allow 68.8 points per game (89th in the nation).

FGCU Strengths

Offensive production is the clear winner here. While Ken Pomeroy is comparatively less enthusiastic about the FGCU offense, (82nd in adjusted offensive efficiency) the raw numbers are still daunting. The Eagles’ overall field goal percentage is fifth in the nation, coming in at 50.2 percent. Adjusted field goal percentage still puts them at 22nd overall, so FGCU can clearly shoot lights out if it can get into a rhythm.

Florida State’s guards will have their hands full with FGCU’s backcourt as well. The top four scorers for the Eagles all play the guard position, including the main star of the team in Brandon Goodwin. The 6-2 junior out of Georgia scores a team leading 18.2 points per game, while also nabbing 4.6 rebounds per game — reminiscent of Terance Mann’s role on Florida State. He’s also shooting over 51 percent on the year.

The Eagles will also be more resistant to getting “worn down” like many expect them to be. While it will still probably happen, FGCU has nine players that regularly get over 10 minutes per game, so it can stay in a contest longer than a team like Virginia Tech can.

FGCU Weaknesses

Defense for the Eagles is what will ultimately down them at some point in the tournament (and likely against Florida State). Kenpom puts their adjusted defensive efficiency at 172nd in the nation — not a very even match-up against a team like FSU, who ranks in the top 25. It would be shocking to see the Seminoles struggle to score. The best hope for FGCU to win would be an offensive shootout.

If fans thought FSU’s lack of big men was a weakness, FGCU’s situation will make them appreciate what they have. While some of it is attributed to the style of basketball they play, the Eagles do not have a true center. They have a handful of forwards that contribute in Marc-Eddy Norelia, Demetris Morant, and Antravious Simmons, but those players aren’t used in the typical way you would expect frontcourt personnel to be used. Either way you slice it, Florida State holds clear advantages in this category.

FSU Key to Victory

Attack the rim. Whether it be with bigger guys like Jarquez Smith or more athletic players like Jonathan Isaac, the Seminoles need to punish FGCU for its lack of rim protection. This will also help free up the outside shots and give Florida State’s guards room to work with. It shouldn’t be too hard for Florida State to get into an offensive rhythm against FGCU. If it does early, the game could be a laugher.

FGCU Key to Victory

Turn it in to a shootout. The Eagles might not be prolific from behind the arc, but they still have legitimate scoring ability. Florida State can sometimes get cold at certain times throughout the game, and often struggles to regain its composure. FGCU wants to play at its own pace and force FSU to constantly score. Throw in a little luck, and FGCU could pull off the first big upset of the tournament.

Predictions

Lead writer Clint Eiland: 86-64, Florida State. The Seminoles realize early on that FGCU can’t defend their athleticism or their play around the rim. FSU keeps a steady stream of scoring going while FGCU tries to hang around. With about 10 minutes left in the second half, the Eagles begin to fall behind, and Florida State pulls ahead comfortably to advance to the second round.

Contributor T.J. Pittinger: 74-62, Florida State. The Noles let FGCU hang around in the first half, but depth is ultimately the key. The Noles extend the lead in the second half and win comfortably.

Editor Mike Ferguson: 86-77, Florida State. This one will be close throughout, but I think Florida State’s size and depth become more and more problematic as the game wears on. The Seminoles slowly pull away and advance to the round of 32.