What to Make of the Resurgent FSU Defense?

If you had asked any observer about the Florida State defense before Oct. 8, most would conclude that it was poorly coached and in need of serious change. The five games before the match-up against Miami did not instill confidence that defensive coordinator Charles Kelly had the Seminoles on the right track.

Two losses against Louisville and North Carolina (and even the wins against Ole Miss and South Florida) resulted in a defense that ranked near the bottom of multiple metrics. Injuries played a part, but it was still simply not where any FSU defense should ever be.

The contest against the Hurricanes seemed to have flipped the script. After holding quarterback Brad Kaaya and a respectable offense to only 19 points, the Seminoles’ defense regained some of the confidence it appeared to have lost.

In the final six games of the season, the most points FSU gave up was 37, but that was to Clemson, who ranks near the top of many offensive categories with a handful of future NFL players. All things considered, 37 points was around what was expected. The rest of the contests did not see the Seminoles give up any more than 20 points.

Wayne McGahee of the Tallahassee Democrat cites advanced metrics to track the progress of the defense since the North Carolina loss. There’s a variety of numbers to look at, but for now, just know that the FSU defense is currently 18th overall in the S&P ratings — up from 79th earlier in the season.

The trend is seen at multiple positions. The defensive line leads the nation in sacks, while cornerback Tarvarus McFadden has the most interceptions of any FBS player with eight. This was the level that people expected the defense to play at for all of 2016.

But that brings an interesting question: how does one explain the beginning struggles? Are the concerns with Kelly still justified? What changes should FSU make if any?

It has been established that the schedule was unfortunate for FSU to start with. It was unusually front loaded with four offenses that currently rank in the top 25 of the S&P ratings. Injuries to players like safety Derwin James, defensive end Josh Sweat, and defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi only compounded the issues that come with early tests. One can only guess what might have occurred if the challenges were spaced out more.

Yet, that does not explain many of the fundamental issues that became apparent.

It’s hard to get an estimate on the amount of blown coverages witnessed this year, but it’s certainly in the double digits. Once again, an injury to James partly explains that, but the fact is that improvement among reserves was minimal. A.J. Westbrook was a complete liability in coverage for most of the year, and by the end of the season, Ermon Lane, a receiver who converted in the middle of the year, may have been the best safety on the field. Trey Marshall could have made a bigger impact if it was not for injury issues.

Perhaps there is no more legitimate criticism than the inability to properly execute zone defense. The Florida State secondary seemed to rely more on man coverage this season than any of the previous years, and it led to some interesting results. McFadden was able to garner a nation-leading eight interceptions, which in part helped FSU rise to a top 25 team nationally in total interceptions.

FSU allowed 17 passing touchdowns total, which is only 50th in the nation. Of those 17, nine were allowed by secondary players. McFadden was responsible for five of those.

The issue never actually went away. Receivers for Syracuse and Florida were wide open multiple times when FSU resorted to zone. It got bailed out because the respective quarterbacks could not deliver the ball where they needed to.

However, credit should be given where it is due. The defensive line for Florida State is arguably top 10 in the nation and has become a top 5 pass-rushing unit. Coaches Odell Haggins on the interior and Brad Lawing on the outside have earned their money this year.

It is also encouraging that despite devastating losses early on, the defense did not get worse as the season went on. It noticeably improved and was finally respectable — maybe even good — by the end of the year.

So should Kelly be let go?

The short (and new) answer: no. But changes should be made.

Most notably, linebackers were once again a sore spot for the defense. Charles Kelly spent one year as the linebackers coach in 2013 and that group was excellent. Ever since then, Bill Miller has held reigns over the position.

They have not improved considerably, and at this point his value is in recruiting. A healthy Matthew Thomas, a former 5-star, and Ro’Derrick Hoskins, a redshirt junior, should each be playing better than they did in 2016.

Conceivably, FSU could even move Kelly back to linebackers coach and hire a co-defensive coordinator. That would reduce potential issues with staff turnover and help a transition go smoothly. Or they could hire a defensive backs coach to join the staff and help Kelly with the secondary — another area that needs help.

But remaining stagnant in the offseason is the worst choice that head coach Jimbo Fisher and FSU could make. The Seminoles have enough talent to not be bottoming out at 79th overall, so there clearly exists other issues than player injuries or youth.

All defenses are allowed passes at some point. It becomes a problem when the defense performs terribly against every offense with a pulse that it faces. The holes in the defense still exist, and it’s highly unlikely that the exact same coaches will suddenly find the cure.

Florida State should be happy with its end of season turnaround on defense. What the Seminoles should not be, is complacent with the status quo.