Fighting for a New Year’s Six: The Case for FSU and Louisville

After four straight Florida State victories highlighted by a 31-13 victory over rival Florida and consecutive Louisville losses to Houston and Kentucky, the Seminoles appear in line for a berth in a New Year’s Six bowl.

The College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled Tuesday night and most assume that Clemson will remain in the top 4. If the Tigers defeat Virginia Tech in Saturday’s ACC Championship in Orlando, they would likely cement a spot in the College Football Playoff for a second straight year.

Should that play out as expected, the next highest ranked team in the ACC would get an automatic berth into a New Year’s Six bowl — the Capital One Orange Bowl. FSU was ranked higher in the traditional polls on Sunday at No. 12 while Louisville came in 15th in the AP Poll and No. 16 in the Amway Coaches Poll.

The only poll that matters however, is the College Football Playoff rankings which will be unveiled in hours. When the teams met on the field on Sept. 17, Louisville handed then No. 2 Florida State its worst loss under head coach Jimbo Fisher, 63-20, but will that be enough for the Cardinals to land in Miami?

We make the case for both teams being deserving of that spot:

FSU

Sure, Florida State may have been annihilated in the head-to-head meeting with Louisville, but the overall body of work is much better. FSU played two non-conference opponents currently ranked (South Florida and Florida) to Louisville’s none. When you compare the overall record of non-conference FBS opponents, FSU’s opponents went 22-12 compared to Louisville’s 23-25.

Both played teams from the American Athletic Conference with Louisville falling to Houston 36-10 on Nov. 17 and FSU defeating South Florida 55-35 on Sept. 24. Houston sits at 9-3 while South Florida is 10-2. All three of Houston’s conference losses came to schools the Bulls defeated.

Both teams also faced teams from the SEC East. The Seminoles beat the division’s champion in Florida on Saturday, 31-13. Louisville fell at home to a Kentucky team that was just 6-5 coming into the game which included a 44-35 loss at home to Southern Mississippi. Florida also defeated Kentucky when the teams met in Gainesville, 45-7.

When it came to crossover opponents in the ACC, the Seminoles played a much tougher Coastal division slate, facing Miami and North Carolina, who each finished the regular season 8-4 and with 5-3 ACC records. Louisville faced Virginia and Duke, who managed to go just a combined 6-18 and 2-14 in ACC play.

Though Louisville handled Florida State 63-20 on the field in September, few probably believe that would be the case if the teams met again this week. As the season has gone on, FSU has improved immensely while the Cardinals have seen a significant drop-off. FSU has won each of its last four games and the last three by an average margin of 29 points.

Louisville on the other hand, has not only lost to Houston and Kentucky, but trailed in the fourth quarter to the likes of Wake Forest and Virginia. Beating Duke would not have been a certainty for the Cardinals had it not been for a controversial roughing the kicker call in a 17-14 game late in the fourth quarter.

Louisville

Not only did Louisville defeat Florida State 63-20 — a convincing case in itself — but the Cardinals finished two games better in conference play at 7-1 compared to FSU’s 5-3. Louisville’s 63-20 victory over the Seminoles may have even been more lopsided had FSU not scored 10 points in garbage time with Louisville’s starting defense and quarterback Lamar Jackson on the bench.

While the Cardinals’ cross conference competition wasn’t as good as Florida State’s, Louisville tended to handle common opponents better for the most part. In Louisville’s only ACC loss, the Cardinals fell at Clemson 42-36 while FSU fell to the Tigers 37-34. It’s worth noting however that Louisville was inside the Clemson 10-yard-line in the final minute with a chance to go ahead but was stopped on fourth down. FSU also played Clemson at home while the Cardinals had to travel.

Louisville and FSU both won at Syracuse. Louisville beat the Orange 62-28 — a 34-point margin. FSU won at the Carrier Dome, 45-14 — a 31-point margin. It’s worth noting that FSU faced an Orange team without starting quarterback Eric Dungey.

FSU was forced to rally in the fourth quarter to beat N.C. State 24-20 in Raleigh while the Cardinals beat the Wolfpack at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, 54-13. The Seminoles at home beat Boston College 45-7. On the road, Louisville beat Boston College, 52-7.

Both teams had the luxury of playing Wake Forest at home. The Seminoles won 17-6 and Louisville won 44-12. It should be noted that the Cardinals actually trailed in the fourth quarter before outscoring the Demon Deacons 34-0 over the final 10:35.

Summary

There’s obviously a case for each to earn the ACC’s spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. What the selection committee decides in mere hours could go a long way in determining whether it’ll be the Cardinals or Seminoles headed to the Orange Bowl in Miami.

If the committee ranks Louisville higher than FSU on Tuesday night, Seminole fans can start planning for Orlando for either the Russell Athletic Bowl or Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl. If FSU is the higher ranked team, there is a chance the committee could reweigh the head-to-head contest on Sunday after the conference championship games have been played.

Even if the committee is committed to ranking the Seminoles above Louisville in its final rankings, FSU still needs Clemson to beat Virginia Tech in Saturday night’s ACC Championship to secure a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. If the Hokies are able to spring the upset, neither FSU nor Louisville will be heading to Miami and the ACC will likely go unrepresented in the College Football Playoff.

Mike Ferguson is the editor of The Daily Nole. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeWFerguson